EUR/USD: Rate trends likely to support Euro all year – SocGen

EUR/USD hit a new cycle high and ran out of steam, after three months of strong gains. In the opinion of Kit Juckes, chief currency strategist at Societe Generalethe euro is a call option on dips, barring new geopolitical events.

“If it weren’t for the war in Ukraine, which is affecting inflation/growth, public finances and terms of trade in Europe, EUR/USD should be clearly bullish and approaching 1.20.”

“Both the direct economic impact of the war and the negative confidence effects of exposing Europe’s energy dependency matter, of course. But, if the impact of the war does not increase (or disappears altogether), our rate forecasts justify another four figures or so of gains for EUR/USD this year (consistent with our forecast of 1.12 EUR/USD at the end of the year).”

“It may be a dull day, but the euro is a dip buy and the dollar is a rallies sell, barring further geopolitical developments.”

Source: Fx Street

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