- Geopolitical concerns and increased oil prices are weighing on the recovery attempts of the euro.
- The fears of investors on a greater participation of the US in the war between Israel and Iran keep the US dollar of safe refuge at high levels.
- The EUR/USD is struggling to find acceptance above 1,1500.
The Eur/USD It shows minor profits on Wednesday after a significant fall the day before. The growing tensions in the Middle East, together with continuous uncertainty about global trade and strong acceleration in oil prices are limiting upward attempts.
The recovery of the common currency since the minimum of Tuesday has stagnated in the 1,1500 area, approximately 1% below the maximums last week. The feeling of the market is still fragile as the war between Israel and Iran enters its sixth day, with the US adopting a more aggressive tone against the Republic Islamic
Beyond that, the final CPI of the Eurozone has confirmed the previous estimate, pointing to slower price pressures, which has not provided any significant support to the euro.
The comments of US administration officials suggesting that President Donald Trump would be considering attacking Iran, to confirm a total surrender and the end of their nuclear program, have worried investors. The Iranian ambassador to the UN warned that they will respond to any direct US attack, increasing the fears of a greater escalation of the conflict, which favors shelter assets, such as the US dollar.
Crude prices appreciated more than 3 $ on Tuesday, reaching levels close to the 75.00 $ area, an increase of 16% compared to May prices, adding additional weight to the euro. The Eurozone is a net importer of crude, and the price increase would harm the growth prospects of the region.
Wednesday’s approach is in the Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Decision (FED) and the opinions of President Jerome Powell on how to deal with the weakening of growth and possible higher inflation. The US dollar will be sensitive to changes in economic projections or points graph that could alter interest rates expectations.
Euro price today
The lower table shows the percentage of euro change (EUR) compared to the main currencies today. Euro was the strongest currency in front of the Swiss Franco.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.22% | -0.17% | -0.26% | -0.04% | -0.25% | -0.11% | 0.12% | |
| EUR | 0.22% | 0.04% | -0.08% | 0.08% | -0.13% | 0.17% | 0.34% | |
| GBP | 0.17% | -0.04% | -0.12% | 0.04% | -0.17% | 0.00% | 0.31% | |
| JPY | 0.26% | 0.08% | 0.12% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.39% | 0.64% | |
| CAD | 0.04% | -0.08% | -0.04% | -0.25% | -0.20% | -0.04% | 0.28% | |
| Aud | 0.25% | 0.13% | 0.17% | -0.04% | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.50% | |
| NZD | 0.11% | -0.17% | 0.00% | -0.39% | 0.04% | -0.30% | 0.19% | |
| CHF | -0.12% | -0.34% | -0.31% | -0.64% | -0.28% | -0.50% | -0.19% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the euro of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quotation).
What moves the market today: the euro recovers despite the growing geopolitical tensions
- Israel continued to bombard Iran for the sixth consecutive day. The president of the United States, Trump, demanded the “unconditional surrender” of Tehran authorities and promised to deploy more combat planes to support the Israeli army, in a clear sign of the greatest commitment of America in the war.
- The Iranian ambassador to the United Nations has reacted to the comments of President Trump’s Tuesday, ensuring that any direct participation of the United States in the war against Iran will be answered.
- The Eurozone data published on Wednesday confirmed the deflationary trends anticipated by the preliminary publication. Monthly inflation remained flat in May, after an increase of 0.6% in April, while annual inflation was decelerated 1.9% from the previous 2.2% rate.
- Later today, it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve maintain stable interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.5%, but the weak US data could recently have taken the bank to soften its hard line posture. Any indication of a rate cut in the coming months will probably send the US dollar downwards in front of the euro.
- Future markets are valuing two interest rate cuts in 2025, with a 60% probability that the first one takes place in September, according to data published by the CME Fed Watch tool.
- The US retail sales data showed on Tuesday showed a fall greater than expected. The consumption in the US decreased at a rate of 0.9% in May, beyond the contraction of 0.7% expected, and the reading of April was reviewed to a 0.1% drop from the previous estimate of an increase of 0.1%.
- In the Eurozone, the Zew economic feeling index in Germany, also published on Tuesday, improved beyond expectations, rising to 47.5 in June from 25.2 in May, exceeding the market forecasts of a reading of 35.0. However, the data failed to provide any significant support to the euro.
Technical analysis: EUR/USD extends its reversal with the support in 1,1475 in the focus
EUR/USD He broke down the triangle pattern on Tuesday, confirming a deeper reversal since the maximum of last week, above 1,1600. The torque is pressing on Wednesday, but the 4 -hour relative force index (RSI) remains below level 50, suggesting that the bassist impulse could grow.
The torque has returned above 1,1500 and could re -test the base of the broken triangle, now in 1,1545, before extending down. The immediate support is at the minimum of Tuesday, 1,1477. Below here, the next objectives are 1,1370 (minimum of June 6 and 10) and 1,1315 (Minimum of May 30).
On the positive side, a confirmation above the aforementioned 1,1545 would relieve the bearish pressure and bring the area of ​​1,1630-1,1640 again (maximum of June 12 and 16).
Economic indicator
Fed interest rates decision
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Delibera on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates in eight preprogrammed meetings per year. It has two mandates: maintain inflation in 2% and maintain full employment. Its main tool to achieve this is to establish interest rates, both to those that it lends to banks and to those that banks lend each other. If you decide to raise the fees, the US dollar (USD) tends to strengthen since it attracts more foreign capital tickets. If the rates lower, it tends to weaken the USD since capital is drained towards countries that offer greater returns. If the rates remain unchanged, the attention focuses on the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and if it is a hard line (expectancy of higher interest rates in the future) or moderate (expectation of lower rates in the future).
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Next publication:
MIÉ JUN 18, 2025 18:00
Frequency:
Irregular
Dear:
4.5%
Previous:
4.5%
Fountain:
Federal Reserve
Economic indicator
Fed monetary policy statement
After the Federal Reserve Rate Decision (FED), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) publishes its statement on monetary policy. The statement can influence the volatility of the US dollar (USD) and determine a positive or negative short -term trend. A hard line vision is considered bullish for the USD, while a moderate vision is considered negative or bassist.
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Next publication:
MIÉ JUN 18, 2025 18:00
Frequency:
Irregular
Dear:
–
Previous:
–
Fountain:
Federal Reserve
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
