EUR/USD recovers as market pressures decrease

  • The EUR/USD won 0.8% on Tuesday while commercial wars become hypothetical.
  • The markets have challenged President Trump’s tariff lanterns after several delays.
  • European economic data is still scarce this week.

The EUR/USD rose eight tenths of one percent on Tuesday, recovering lost land but without recovering the 1,0400 zone. The torque has broken a six -day loss streak, but the general bunder impulse remains scarce with the euro at the mercy of the general market flows and the imminent non -agricultural payroll figures (NFP) of the US.

The fall of the EUR/USD at the beginning of the week towards 1,0200 caused by the imminent tariffs of the US president Donald Trump has firmly recovered land after the Trump administration took any excuse that could find to avoid its own self -imposed threats to tax to their own citizens for importing goods from other countries. The threats of a 10% flat import tax on the goods produced in Europe are still on the table, but the last minute turns towards concessions in almost all the target countries of President Trump, except China, have left the investors confident in That the posture is simply that and nothing more. The import rates of 10% on China’s assets are still on the table, but President Trump also did not fulfill his threat of arbitrarily duplicating tariffs to any country that retaliates.

For their credit, China’s retaliation tariffs of 10% on goods manufactured in the US are largely a theatrical gesture; Very few goods manufactured in the US reach Chinese markets, and the movement is mostly symbolic. Investors are now ignoring most of the commercial rhetoric of President Trump while the US administration stumbled upon their own assembly, and it is likely that future tariff threats have attenuated impacts as future concessions are described in advance .

ADP employment change data in the US will be published on Wednesday; However, this erratic figure is not expected to generate a significant movement. In addition, the Purchasing Management Index (PMI) of US ISM Services for January, with projections that indicate an increase of 54.1 to 54.3 is anticipated. The most critical of the US this week will be the non -agricultural payroll on Friday, which is expected to decrease from 256K to 170K.

EUR/USD price forecast

The EUR/USD found enough impulse to stop a six -day drop, but the torque still remains on the wrong side of the 1,0400 zone and the 50 -day exponential mobile average (EMA) in 1,0440. The bullish impulse has vanished in the technical oscillators, and the action of the price of the torque is prepared for a lateral movement between 1,0500 and 1,0300.

EUR/USD daily graphics

Euro Faqs


The euro is the currency of the 19 countries of the European Union that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most negotiated currency in the world, behind the US dollar. In 2022, it represented 31 % of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily business volume of more than 2.2 billion dollars a day. The EUR/USD is the most negotiated currency pair in the world, with an estimate of 30 %of all transactions, followed by the EUR/JPY (4 %), the EUR/GBP (3 %) and the EUR/AUD (2 %).


The European Central Bank (ECB), based in Frankfurt (Germany), is the Eurozone reserve bank. The ECB establishes interest rates and manages monetary policy. The main mandate of the ECB is to maintain price stability, which means controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its main tool is the rise or decrease in interest rates. Relatively high interest rates (or the expectation of higher types) usually benefit the euro and vice versa. The GOVERNMENT BOOK of the ECB makes decisions about monetary policy in meetings that are held eight times a year. The decisions are made by the directors of the National Banks of the Eurozone and six permanent members, including the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.


Eurozone inflation data, measured by the harmonized consumer prices index (IPCA), are an important economic indicator for the euro. If inflation increases more than expected, especially if it exceeds 2% of the ECB, it forces the ECB to rise interest rates to control it again. Relatively high interest rates compared to their counterparts usually benefit the euro, since they make the region more attractive as a place for global investors to deposit their money.


Published data measure the health of the economy and can have an impact on the euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment and consumer trust surveys can influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the euro. Not only attracts more foreign investment, but it can encourage the ECB to raise interest rates, which will directly strengthen the euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the euro is likely to fall. The economic data of the four largest economies in the euro zone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, since they represent 75% of the economy of the euro area.


Another important fact that is published on the euro is the commercial balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what you spend on imports during a given period. If a country produces highly demanded export products, its currency will gain value simply by the additional demand created by foreign buyers seeking to buy those goods. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens a currency and vice versa in the case of a negative balance

Source: Fx Street

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