- The euro bounces with the improvement of the feeling of the market.
- The escalation fears in the Middle East conflict have decreased.
- The EUR/USD maintains its intact bullish trend while above 1,1500.
The EUR/USD is quoting with moderate advances on Monday, extending its recovery after Friday’s reversion, after Israel’s attack to Iran. The torque has returned to levels close to 1,1560 from the minimum of Friday in 1,1490 while the market evaluates the impact of the conflict on the Middle East.
Israel and Iran have continued to bombard each other over the weekend. However, until now, tensions have not extended throughout the region and Iran has not threatened to block the Ormuz Strait, a strategic path for oil trafficking and whose closure could involve the US in the conflict.
The US dollar (USD), which rose on Friday, favored by the search for security by investors, is losing ground again. The uncertainty about tariffs and the lack of progress in the agreements between the US administration and its commercial partners are resurfaced, weighing on the dollar, with the clock approaching the deadline of July 9.
Investors are also looking at the Federal Reserve (Fed), which will decide their monetary policy on Wednesday. It is unlikely that interest rates change, but the weak data seen recently could lead the Central Bank to show a moderate change in the tone of its statement, preparing the land for a rate cut in September.
If that is the case, we could see the US dollar resuming its long -term bassist trend in the second half of the week.
Euro price today
The lower table shows the percentage of euro change (EUR) compared to the main currencies today. Euro was the strongest currency in front of the Swiss Franco.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.37% | -0.19% | -0.25% | -0.07% | -0.42% | -0.26% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.13% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.43% | |
| GBP | 0.19% | -0.07% | 0.08% | 0.25% | 0.00% | 0.06% | 0.37% | |
| JPY | 0.25% | -0.13% | -0.08% | 0.17% | -0.48% | -0.37% | -0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.07% | -0.30% | -0.25% | -0.17% | -0.28% | -0.18% | 0.13% | |
| Aud | 0.42% | -0.06% | 0.00% | 0.48% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.37% | |
| NZD | 0.26% | -0.12% | -0.06% | 0.37% | 0.18% | -0.06% | 0.31% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | -0.43% | -0.37% | 0.10% | -0.13% | -0.37% | -0.31% |
The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the euro of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the EUR (base)/USD (quotation).
What moves the market today: the US dollar loses land again as the fears of a regional conflict decrease
- Tensions between Israel and Iran extend for their fourth day, but investors show some relief due to the fact that the conflict has not extended to other countries. Russia and Chipre have offered to mediate in the conflict, and US President Donald Trump urged countries to find an agreement. Risk aversion is decreasing, and the US dollar is withdrawing from Friday’s maximums.
- As the fears of war in the Middle East decrease, the attention moves again to the uncertain global commercial scenario. A news report published this weekend suggests that the agreement between the US and China could have left the issue of rare earth trade, which increases speculation on the true scope and durability of the agreement. The US administration is not achieving any significant agreement with its commercial partners, except one modest with the United Kingdom and an ambiguous one with China, and the deadline of July 9 is approaching. Until now, this anxiety is harming the US dollar more.
- The economic calendar is light in the Eurozone and in the US on Monday. The main approach this week will be the Fed monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The main interest will be in the statement of President Jerome Powell to assess whether the weak macroeconomic data seen in recent weeks have led the Central Bank to consider a short -term rate cut.
- Future markets are valuing stable interest rates in June and July, and a 66% probability of a feat cut in September, according to data published by the Fed Watch tool of the CME Group.
- Friday’s data revealed that the industrial production of the Eurozone contracted at a rate of 2.4% intermensual in April, well above the drop in 1.7% expected, in a sign that the uncertainty about tariffs has begun to affect the economy of the region. These figures increased the negative pressure on the euro (EUR).
- In the US, the consumer’s feeling survey at the University of Michigan showed an improvement, with the index reaching its best preliminary reading in the last four months, in 60.5. Consumer inflation expectations to 1 year, on the other hand, decreased to 5.1% in June from 6.6% in May.
Technical Analysis: The EUR/USD maintains its intact bullish trend while above 1,1495
The EUR/USD was rejected at levels above 1,1600 and corrected downward on Friday. However, the downward attempts have been contained above an anterior resistance area, in the 1,1500 area, which maintains intact the broader upward structure.
The pair is now quoting upwards, with the RSI of the 4 -hour graph moving well above level 50, indicating a positive impulse. Immediate resistance is at the intradic level of 1,1575, ahead of Friday’s maximums in the area of ​​1,1615-1.1630.
At the bottom, the support area is at the maximum of June 5, in 1,1495, and the psychological level of 1,1500 keeps the bulls in control. Below here, the following support is in the area of ​​1,1460, where the PAR was limited on June 2 and 10. A greater decrease beyond this level would question the upward trend.
FAQS risk feeling
In the world of financial jargon, the two terms “appetite for risk (Risk-on)” and “risk aversion (risk-off)” refers to the level of risk that investors are willing to support during the reference period. In a “Risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and are more willing to buy risk assets. In a “Risk-Off” market, investors begin to “go to the safe” because they are concerned about the future and, therefore, buy less risky assets that are more certain of providing profitability, even if it is relatively modest.
Normally, during periods of “appetite for risk”, stock markets rise, and most raw materials – except gold – are also revalued, since they benefit from positive growth prospects. The currencies of countries that are large exporters of raw materials are strengthened due to the increase in demand, and cryptocurrencies rise. In a market of “risk aversion”, the bonds go up -especially the main bonds of the state -, the gold shines and the refuge currencies such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss Franco and the US dollar benefit.
The Australian dollar (Aud), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the minor currencies, such as the ruble (Rub) and the South African Rand (Tsar), tend to rise in the markets in which there is “appetite for risk.” This is because the economies of these currencies depend largely on exports of raw materials for their growth, and these tend to rise in price during periods of “appetite for risk.” This is because investors foresee a greater demand for raw materials in the future due to the increase in economic activity.
The main currencies that tend to rise during the periods of “risk aversion” are the US dollar (USD), the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franco (CHF). The dollar, because it is the world reserve currency and because in times of crisis investors buy American public debt, which is considered safe because it is unlikely that the world’s largest economy between in suspension of payments. The Yen, for the increase in the demand for Japanese state bonds, since a great proportion is in the hands of national investors who probably do not get rid of them, not even in a crisis. The Swiss Franco, because the strict Swiss bank legislation offers investors greater protection of capital.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
