EUR / USD remains at weekly highs near 1.1900 after US data, attentive to the ECB

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  • EUR / USD is down modestly from 1.19.
  • US retail sales increased less than expected in October.
  • Lagarde’s speech is next on the euro-calendar.

The pair EUR/USD remains offered on Tuesday and climbs to new weekly highs at the 1.1885 / 90 zone, only to retreat modestly shortly thereafter.

EUR / USD attentive to data and the ECB

The EUR / USD manages to approach 1.1900 in the second half of the week, although the bullish momentum appears to be struggling to overcome this key barrier for the time being. A breakout of this level should open the door to a move to monthly highs around 1.1920 (November 9).

Meanwhile, the persistent weakness surrounding the dollar remains amid vaccine hopes and despite the relentless advance of the pandemic around the world.

In the US data space, overall retail sales expanded 0.3% MoM during October, disappointing expectations. Core sales followed suit, expanding at a meager 0.2% from the prior month.

Still on the US calendar, industrial / manufacturing production, capacity utilization, business inventories, ICT flows, and the NAHB index are as follows.

Additionally, R.Bostic, M.Daly and J.Williams from the FOMC will also speak later on Tuesday.

What to look for around EUR

EUR / USD is once again testing key resistance at the 1.1870 region amid a favorable backdrop in risk appetite trends. However, in the very short term, the EUR / USD pair is expected to remain under scrutiny due to the dynamics of the dollar, mainly coming from the US post-election scenario and the progress of the coronavirus pandemic. On the more domestic front, the euro appears underpinned by auspicious results from domestic fundamentals (even though momentum appears somewhat mitigated in several regions), although the now more dovish stance of the ECB suggests some caution when it comes to bullish attempts. As usual, the euro still seems supported by the strong position of the EMU current account.

Technical levels

At the moment, the pair is gaining 0.30% at 1.1885 and a breakout above 1.1920 (November 9 monthly high) would target 1.1965 (August 18 monthly high) en route to 1.2011 (September 1 high, 2020). On the other hand, the next support emerges at 1.1745 (weekly low of November 11) followed by 1.1709 (Fibonacci level of the 2017-2018 rally) and finally 1.1602 (monthly low of November 4).


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