- EUR/USD rises as investors focus on a series of economic data from both the US and the Eurozone.
- The German economy is expected to have contracted by 0.3% in the third quarter on an annual basis, while the Eurozone as a whole is expected to grow by 0.8% year-on-year.
- Risk aversion could stay afloat amid uncertainty over the US presidential election.
EUR/USD rises slightly above 1.0800 in North American trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair remains largely sideways ahead of a data-packed week in which traders will receive economic growth and inflation data from both the United States (US) and the Eurozone, two key metrics that typically determine the path of interest rates, a crucial driver for currencies.
In the Eurozone, investors are likely to pay more attention to economic growth data because inflation is expected to remain close to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 2% target. Economists expect the Eurozone economy to have grown 0.8% year-on-year, higher than the 0.6% expansion seen in the second quarter. Compared to the second quarter of 2024, economists expect the Eurozone to have grown by 0.2% in the third quarter, the same pace as the previous quarter.
A major contribution to the Eurozone economy is expected to have come from Spain and other economies, as the economy of its largest nation, Germany, is expected to have declined 0.3% in the third quarter compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
On the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meeting last week, ECB policymaker and Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel emphasized the need to implement the growth package, which has already been announced by the German government. , to prevent the economy from getting worse.
“This would make an important contribution to strengthening growth forces. But anything that could go beyond that in 2025 would certainly be welcome from the central bank’s point of view,” Nagel said, Reuters reported.
On the outlook for interest rates, Nagel said: “We shouldn’t be too hasty,” adding that the decision in December will be based on a number of indicators such as the outcome of the US presidential election and data from inflation. His comments came after some ECB officials supported a larger-than-usual 50 basis point (bp) interest rate cut in December.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of the Euro (EUR) against the main currencies today. Euro was the strongest currency against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.26% | -0.23% | -0.44% | 0.03% | 0.02% | -0.06% | -0.30% | |
| EUR | 0.26% | 0.14% | -0.25% | 0.29% | 0.36% | 0.19% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | 0.23% | -0.14% | 0.42% | 0.27% | 0.27% | 0.14% | 0.08% | |
| JPY | 0.44% | 0.25% | -0.42% | 0.55% | -0.17% | -0.35% | -0.33% | |
| CAD | -0.03% | -0.29% | -0.27% | -0.55% | -0.06% | -0.16% | -0.31% | |
| AUD | -0.02% | -0.36% | -0.27% | 0.17% | 0.06% | -0.19% | -0.38% | |
| NZD | 0.06% | -0.19% | -0.14% | 0.35% | 0.16% | 0.19% | -0.25% | |
| CHF | 0.30% | 0.03% | -0.08% | 0.33% | 0.31% | 0.38% | 0.25% |
The heat map shows percentage changes for major currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the quote currency is selected from the top row. For example, if you choose the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change shown in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Market Summary: EUR/USD gains ground ahead of a week packed with US and Eurozone data
- EUR/USD gains in the North American session on Monday as the US Dollar retreats after revisiting a nearly three-month high. The Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Dollar against six major currencies, retreats from 104.60. However, the outlook for the US dollar remains firm as investors are expected to remain risk averse with the United States (US) presidential election just a week away.
- Central bankers, in several panel discussions on the sidelines of the IMF meeting last week, discussed the possible consequences of former US President Donald Trump winning against current Vice President Kamala Harris. Traders seem to be taking this scenario as a positive for the US dollar, as Trump promised to increase tariffs by 10% on all economies except China, which would face even higher tariffs of 60%.
- Aside from the uncertainty over the US elections, the US dollar will also be guided by a series of US data due to be released this week. Market participants will primarily focus on JOLTS job openings and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for clues on employment demand, and third quarter GDP data for the current state of economic health.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD aims to stabilize above 1.0800
EUR/USD continues to hold above the ascending trend line near 1.0750, which is drawn from the October 3, 2023 low, around 1.0450 on the daily time frame. However, the outlook for the major currency pair remains bearish as it remains below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is trading around 1.0900.
The downward move in the shared currency pair began after a downside breakout of a double top formation on the daily time frame near the 9/11 low around 1.1000, resulting in a bearish reversal.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the range of 20.00-40.00, indicating strong bearish momentum.
To the downside, the main pair could see more weakness towards the round support level of 1.0700 if it falls below 1.0750. Meanwhile, the 200-day EMA near 1.0900 and the psychological figure of 1.1000 emerge as key resistances.
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
