EUR/USD shows new maximums of several years after eurozone optimistic data

• The euro extends profits for the tenth day, supported by optimistic data from the eurozone and a weak US dollar.
• A mixture of commercial uncertainty, concerns about the US debt and bets for fed features are hitting the US dollar.
• The EUR/USD has reached overcompra levels in 1,1800, a correction seems likely.

The Eur/USD Keep advancing upwards for the tenth consecutive day. The pair is negotiating with slight profits at the level of 1,1800 at the time of writing this article on Tuesday, promoted by optimists data of Eurozone manufacturing and employment data of Germany.

The US dollar remains defensive, affected by a mixture of concerns about the US trade chaotic, increasing fears on the country’s fiscal debt and expectations increasing that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates at least twice before the end of the year.

In the commercial field, the optimism on the Rare Agreement of Monday between the US and China has been counteracted by the complaints of US President Donald Trump about the discussions with Japan and the threats of the secretary of the US Treasury, Scott Bessent, to impose higher tariffs.

In addition, the uncertainty about the broad Trump fiscal bill, which is struggling to advance in the Senate, amid divisions within the Republican Party on its impact on US fiscal debt, is adding pressure on the US dollar.

Another pressure source for the US dollar is monetary policy. The president’s continuous pressure on the president of the Fed, Jerome Powell, to cut the interest rates and the softest data of the US have recently published inverters to increase the bets for warehouse cuts for the second half of the year.

What moves the market today: the US dollar extends losses as the US tax concerns return.

• With geopolitical tensions in the rearview mirror, concerns about Trump’s tax bill, which is expected to add 3.3 billion dollars to the US fiscal burden, have returned to the market. The fears of a debt crisis are eroding the idea of ​​American exceptionality and adding peso to the US dollar.
• The Eurozone manufacturing activity improved something in June, with the PMI going up to 49.5 from the reading of 49.4 of the previous month. These figures remain consistent with a contraction trend, but exceed the expectations of a stable level of 49.4 and mark their highest level in the last three years.
• Unemployment in Germany increased by 11K in June, below the expected 15K, and well below the 34K May increase. The unemployment rate has remained stable at 6.3% compared to the expectations of a 6.4% increase.
• The preliminary figures of the Eurozone consumer price index (CPI) for June have confirmed stable inflation figures, with prices rising to 2%year -on -year, from 1.9%, and the stable underlying inflation in 2.3%, with both flat IPC readings in the month, largely fulfilling market expectations.
• Trump has expressed his frustration about commercial conversations with Japan, and the Treasury Secretary, Besent, warned that the US could introduce higher tariffs on July 9 despite the ongoing negotiations.
• As for monetary policy, US President has continued to attack the president of the FED, Powell, stating that the US rate should be between 0.5% of Japan and 1.75% of Denmark. These comments raise doubts about the independence of the Central Bank and undermine the status of the US dollar as the world reserve currency.
• These attacks, together with the weak macroeconomic figures recently seen, have increased the expectations of investors on Fed feat cuts for the rest of the year. The CME Group Fed Watch tool shows a 20% probability of a rate cut in July, but a cut of at least 25 basic points (BPS) in September is almost completely valued.
• Tuesday’s approach will be at the Sintra Central Banqueros Summit, Portugal, where the leaders of the world’s main central banks will talk about commerce, global economic perspective and inflation, and could give clues about their fees trajectories.
• In Europe, the preliminary data of the consumer price index (CPI) of the June Eurozone will attract attention. It is expected that consumption inflation has remained stable, after colder CPIs than expected in Italy and Germany on Monday.
• In the US, it is expected that the ISM manufacturing PMI and Jolts employment offers, along with Powell’s speech at the Sintra Summit, provide more clues to the bank’s feat cuts calendar.

EUR/USD reaches overstrust levels above 1,1800

He EUR/USD It is negotiated slightly down, with the relative force index (RSI 14) of 4 hours showing overstrust levels as the torque extends above the 1,1800 area. This is usually a sign of an upcoming corrective reaction.

In the lower part, the previous maximum in 1,1750 (maximum of June 26 and 27) will probably provide some support to a stronger bearish reaction, before the minimum of June 27 in 1,1680.

In the upper part, above 1,1800, the Fibonacci extension level of 261.8% of the negotiation range of June 26.30 is in 1,1850, a plausible bullish objective for today.