- The shared currency is barely moving against the dollar as traders head into the weekend.
- The EU and the US reached an agreement on the supply of natural gas.
- EUR/USD Price Forecast: Confined to 1.0960-1.1000 Range.
The EUR/USD remains dovish amid a choppy trading day as the market mood continues to shift from one risk to another, due to “bull-line” comments from Fed officials, stalling talks on Russian-Ukrainian peace, and an attack on Saudi Arabia’s Aramco facilities on Friday. At 1.0992, EUR/USD shows dollar resistance, despite being weaker throughout the day.
As the American session progresses, market sentiment is mixed. European and US stock indices fluctuate between winners and losers, while the US dollar index, a gauge of the dollar’s value against a basket of six currencies, is barely holding steady at 98,787.
Russia – Ukraine and NATO updates
Meanwhile, the war in Eastern Europe extends to a whole month of hostilities between Russia and Ukraine. Although there have been peace discussions, both sides have disagreed on major issues, as the Russian negotiator said earlier in the day in the cables. He added that Russia and Ukraine are getting closer on secondary issues. At the same time, the NATO summit in Brussels came to an end, with the US and Europe reaching an agreement on natural gas for Europe to reduce energy dependence on Russia.
Although the news is good for the Eurozone, the EUR/USD did not react positively as the pair remains parked in the 1.0980-1.1000 area.
US commercial banks expect two 50bp hikes
Earlier in the day, analysts at Citigroup and Goldman Sachs expected the Federal Reserve to hike 50 bps in the next two meetings, in May and June.
On the US front, the Fed’s speech continues with New York Fed President John Williams also backing a 50 bps hike, stating: “If it is appropriate to raise 50 bps in a meeting, I will.
The US economic docker featured February pending home sales contracted 4.1% from an estimated 1% monthly increase. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for March came in at 59.4 from 59.7, while inflation expectations remained at 5.4% vs. 4.9% in the previous report.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
EUR/USD is still biased lower, although for the last four trading days, EUR/USD has been trading in a tight range between 1.0960 and 1.1000. The lack of a catalyst, in addition to fluctuations in market mood, could keep the shared coin trendless.
That said, the first support for the EUR/USD would be 1.0960. A break of the latter would expose 1.0900, followed by the yearly low at 1.0806. On the other hand, the first resistance of the EUR/USD would be 1.1000. Once cleared, the next resistance would be 1.1050, followed by 1.1100.
Technical levels
Source: Fx Street
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