- EUR/USD could not find the accelerator on Wednesday, failing in a recovery of appetite due to the general risk.
- The Trump administration has moved away from its own tariffs at the last minute.
- The key results of inflation and the US consumer’s feeling survey remain on the agenda for the rest of the week.
EUR/USD remains stagnant in the carts, trapped between 1,1000 and 1,0900 despite a recovery in the general market for the risk of investors after the US once again moved away from its own tariff policies. The president of the USA, Donald Trump, announced through a publication in social networks that his administration would delay the “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days, although with a tax of 10% in general even at the table at the moment. Global investors quickly found the purchase button with the news, however, the brief rebound of the euro towards the level of 1,1100 evaporated quickly, leaving Fiber in a family congestion territory.
Rate markets have drastically retired from their previous expectations of feat cuts, since rates swap operators are currently anticipating 75 basic points of reductions of interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) for the rest of the year. While rates markets continue to bet on a quarter -point cut in June, JPMorgan analysts warn that the Fed is more likely to continue in their waiting phase and see due to tariff uncertainties, and will probably continue to do so until at least September.
The inflation data of the Consumer Price Index (ICC) will be published on Thursday, while the results of the production price index (PPI) and the consumer’s feeling index of the University of Michigan (UOM) will be announced on Friday. This will represent the last set of significant figures of inflation and feeling of the US of the period “pre-arance” of 2025, serving as critical reference points for the rest of the year.
EUR/USD price forecast
EUR/USD cut a two -day loss streak this week, marking a short -term technical support level about 1,0900. However, the purchase pressure is still weak, and a slight thrust from the short side could easily take Fiber to the 200 -day exponential mobile (EMA) average of 1,0700.
Despite a strong recovery of the euro through March, a strong resistance zone is still set between 1,1100 and 1,1000.
EUR/USD daily graphics
Euro Faqs
The euro is the currency of the 19 countries of the European Union that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most negotiated currency in the world, behind the US dollar. In 2022, it represented 31 % of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily business volume of more than 2.2 billion dollars a day. The EUR/USD is the most negotiated currency pair in the world, with an estimate of 30 %of all transactions, followed by the EUR/JPY (4 %), the EUR/GBP (3 %) and the EUR/AU (2 %).
The European Central Bank (ECB), based in Frankfurt (Germany), is the Eurozone reserve bank. The ECB establishes interest rates and manages monetary policy. The main mandate of the ECB is to maintain price stability, which means controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its main tool is the rise or decrease in interest rates. Relatively high interest rates (or the expectation of higher types) usually benefit the euro and vice versa. The GOVERNMENT BOOK of the ECB makes decisions about monetary policy in meetings that are held eight times a year. The decisions are made by the directors of the National Banks of the Eurozone and six permanent members, including the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the harmonized consumer prices index (IPCA), are an important economic indicator for the euro. If inflation increases more than expected, especially if it exceeds 2% of the ECB, it forces the ECB to rise interest rates to control it again. Relatively high interest rates compared to their counterparts usually benefit the euro, since they make the region more attractive as a place for global investors to deposit their money.
Published data measure the health of the economy and can have an impact on the euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment and consumer trust surveys can influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the euro. Not only attracts more foreign investment, but it can encourage the ECB to raise interest rates, which will directly strengthen the euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the euro is likely to fall. The economic data of the four largest economies in the euro zone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, since they represent 75% of the economy of the euro area.
Another important fact that is published on the euro is the commercial balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns with its exports and what you spend on imports during a given period. If a country produces highly demanded export products, its currency will gain value simply by the additional demand created by foreign buyers seeking to buy those goods. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens a currency and vice versa in the case of a negative balance
Source: Fx Street
I am Joshua Winder, a senior-level journalist and editor at World Stock Market. I specialize in covering news related to the stock market and economic trends. With more than 8 years of experience in this field, I have become an expert in financial reporting.
