The EUR / USD consensus is super bullish ahead of 2021, and while economists from Nordea agree on a move towards 1.25-1.27, also take note of several warning signs of “gray swans”.
See – EUR / USD: Ambitious target at 1.45 in the coming years – Rabobank
“We believe in a move towards 1.25-1.27 but we also think it is worth considering accepting a take profit level around 1.25-1.27 in exchange for a sell around 1.19 on EUR / USD. “
“We see that our model based on rates and positioning still suggests a higher EUR / USD. However, the “fair value” for the pair has stabilized and started to decline lately, due to a relative increase in US yields, as well as a negative positioning of the USD. In our world, a new selloff of US bonds in the first half of 2021 would lower the estimate of the fair value of the pair and therefore help prop up the USD. “
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