EUR / USD strength has stalled, as expected, at its 200-day average at 1.1889, Credit Suisse analysts say. He sees that further consolidation should be allowed in the near term, and they warn that a breakout in due course may expose the 38.2% retracement of the entire first quarter decline at 1.1950.
“EUR / USD strength has stalled as expected for now at the 200-day average at 1.1889 and short-term consolidation around here should still be allowed.”
“As the MACD’s daily momentum has turned higher, our bias is that this is followed by a closing breakout to the upside in due course. This should see the force extend further to the 38.2% retracement of the entire 2021 drop at 1.1948 / 50, potentially even the mid-March highs at 1.1990 / 92, but with this zone of 1.1950 / 1.1992 it is expected make it a much tougher barrier and we are looking for a more important limit here. “
“Support for a pullback from the 200-day average moves to 1.1860 initially, below which may alleviate the immediate bullish bias for a drop back to 1.1823 / 22, which we seek to hold in principle. Although a drop below 1.1795 / 87 is necessary, to see a more decisive rejection of the 200-day average, clearing the way for a move back to 1.1737, and then to 1.1703 / 1.1695 ”.