Euro zone: PMIs increase due to industrial optimism and anticipation – abn amro

The PMI composed of the Eurozone for March moved more towards the expansive territory, reaching 50.4, compared to 50.2 in February. In the last month of the first quarter, the activity of the private sector of the eurozone increased even more thanks to the growing optimism in the German manufacturing sector, since a greater fiscal expense illuminates the growth prospects of Germany. The consensus expected a slightly higher compound PMI, ABN Amro economists report, Jan-Paul Van de Kerke and Bill Diviney.

American clients accelerate their industrial orders in the Eurozone before possible tariffs

“The PMIS have now remained in expansive territory throughout the first quarter, in line with our expectation that GDP expands 0.3% in the first quarter, thanks to strong domestic demand due to the increase in real income and the effects of anticipation derived from expected US tariffs. In fact, improvement in the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone He promoted the PMI composed of the Eurozone, while the expansion in the services sector was moderated. ”

“The manufacturing sector will benefit from the greatest growth prospects, since the increase in defense expenditure and fiscal generosity in Germany raises the future demand for industrial goods. Particularly in Germany, the weak domestic demand has been a factor that contributes to the bad industrial situation. In addition to the anticipated increase in future demand, temporary factors have driven current production. With the production component entering into expansive territory for the first time since March 2023, the industrial sector of the Eurozone could also benefit from US clients to accelerate their industrial orders in the Eurozone before possible tariffs. “

“Seeing the general panorama, the improvement of the PMI and its movement more towards the expansive territory is consistent with our GDP forecast for the first quarter. We have planned a 0.3% increase in GDP in the first quarter of 2025, after an increase of 0.2% in the last quarter of 2024. A high salary growth and the decrease in inflation should further boost consumption They will temporarily benefit from the effects of anticipation mentioned above. “

Source: Fx Street

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