The analyzes of the last few days ensured that the most feared outcome on the US election night, the one that would cause the most turbulence in the markets, would be a very tight victory for either of the two candidates. Donald Trump o Joe Biden. And those fears have been fulfilled. With thousands of votes to be counted and several key states to define their color, it is unlikely that this Wednesday the winner of the elections will be known. It could take days, even more so considering that the Republican candidate has threatened to appeal the Supreme Court to denounce an alleged “fraud” against him. Stock markets have not been slow to react in Europe.
The Ibex 35 2.5% was left at the open, somewhat above the Cac 40 in Paris (-1.2%), the Dax in Frankfurt (-1.6%), the Ftse 100 in London (-0.6% ) and the Ftse Mib of Milan (-1.6%).
In Spain, practically all the values are in red during the first bars of the session, although the worst part is taken BBVA (-6%), Siemens Gamesa (-5.3%), and Sabadell Bank, Santander, Mapfre O Bankinter, which fell by more than 4%.
Investors are betting lower on an increasingly tight count that prevents declaring a clear winner, even if Trump did so on his own. “This is a fraud on the American people (…). We have won these elections, “he assured in a brief appearance from the White House. Biden, for his part, has been more cautious and” optimistic “and has asked his followers “keep faith” until the numbers are final.
A sufficient majority on one side or the other would allow the reforms pending in recent weeks to be unblocked. A resounding Democratic victory in all Houses would facilitate the unlocking of the fiscal stimulus package blocked by the differences between Democrats and Republicans. The measure would represent an injection that could approach three trillion dollars and, in addition, in the case of Asia and Europe, the triumph of Biden could soften the tariff pressures that were agitated during the Trump era.
For John Reinsberg, vice president of Lazard Asset Management and head of international and global strategy, a re-election of Trump would be favorable for US markets, speed up a trade deal with the UK, reinforce potential disputes with Europe and resume the trade war with China. Instead, a Biden victory would be good news for Europe and favor emerging markets.
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