Europeans are marching emotionally unprepared for what is coming this winter

By Maria Tadeo

The mayor of Vigo in Galicia, Spain has already started preparing for the town’s annual Christmas extravaganza. And this despite the effort of the Spanish government to reduce electricity consumption in cooperation with the European Union. Turning off the lights, the mayor argues, would give Vladimir Putin a victory if the holiday spirit—and the spending that goes with it—is crushed by the war.

One would think that in the context of a looming energy crisis, installing lights would be at the bottom of the priority list. Loving Christmas like no one else, I hope this year it comes wrapped in a reality test – for everyone.

Short-sighted

In Spain, energy-saving measures came into effect last week: air conditioning is set to 27 degrees Celsius (80.5 degrees Fahrenheit), shop windows must be blacked out from 10 p.m. and government buildings must dim their “lights”. This has sparked heated debates between the central government, regional administrations and tourist destinations such as Madrid, where nightlife only starts after nine in the evening.

It is a microcosm of how unprepared – emotionally and practically – Europeans generally are for what is potentially the darkest winter the continent has seen in decades.

The right-wing head of the Madrid region, Isabel Diaz Ayuso, is among the leading voices against the new containment rules. She became famous for keeping the city open for business during much of the pandemic. Now, he argues that the self-restriction will destroy jobs, scare away tourists and hinder public safety.

He makes two logical points: the Spanish government rushed to enact the measures without having achieved broad consensus and without a convincing narrative to justify a response to a winter crisis in the middle of summer. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s token move not to wear a tie during official business – to “make up” for the air conditioning shutdown – was seen as little tokenism. It was largely ignored.

However, it would be foolish and short-sighted for Diaz Aguoso and Madrid to continue unfettered. And the controversy goes beyond Spain’s borders. In France, President Emmanuel Macron is set to unveil an “energy austerity” plan that is essentially a clone of the Spanish measures. It is likely to meet the same resistance.

His rival, Marine Le Pen, argues that European sanctions on Russian energy have failed and the French will pay their dues this winter. With wholesale electricity costs reaching new record highs for Paris, Le Pen is trying to sway working-class voters by presenting herself as the champion of purchasing power.

Germany is likely to feel the overwhelming brunt of the “Russian winter”, but Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently downplayed media fears of winter unrest, even as the Federal Grid Service – the energy regulator of the country – called on consumers to cut back on consumption and save money for the bill that will come with the cold weather. Companies like Deutsche Bank are even going beyond the voluntary measures mandated by the government.

In Italy, caretaker prime minister Mario Draghi sparked controversy by saying Italians would have to choose between comfortable air conditioning and helping Ukraine. However, neither candidate is talking about the issue during the election campaign ahead of the September 25 general election vote. That will make the bill even heavier (or colder) come winter – and the potential backlash from an unprepared electorate even more unpredictable.

Under the carpet

For months, European officials have swept any discussion under the rug. First they wanted to save the summer tourist season, which is a cash cow that provides much of the growth of the second quarter of the year for many countries. Second, governments did not want to cause panic among consumers. It was only in July that the public discourse produced by Brussels and national governments began to reflect the concerns expressed behind closed doors. It is a bit late for a reality check – which the political class on a pan-European scale is still preventing.

The result: ordinary European citizens have not fully internalized the “anomaly” of the coming winter. The fact that dimmed lights and limited air conditioning spark such a heated conversation is not a good sign. In December, the fuss over such issues will seem insignificant if Russia further weaponizes energy. It is daunting just to imagine the effect on lower income families who will be forced to choose between paying for food or paying for heating.

It is now clear that Putin wants to bring down the EU and its sanctions and make them pay dearly. This will happen most effectively through discord, mistrust and misinformation among Europeans.

This is no time for petty party politics. What is needed now is a sober assessment that will cut across party lines and bring solutions. It is increasingly late to face the harsh reality.