Former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) attorney John Reed Stark suggested that in its current composition, the regulator is unlikely to approve applications from large companies to launch spot ETFs pegged to bitcoin.

John Reed Stark published a post in which he outlined the reasons for the possible refusal of the regulator to launch cryptocurrency ETFs. Stark cited the nonprofit Better Markets as calling on the SEC to reject proposed rule changes that would make these investment products easier to launch.

Better Markets supported the SEC’s approach to regulating the crypto industry, agreeing with the agency that the bitcoin market is prone to artificially inflating trading volumes and manipulation. According to the Better Markets letter, the bitcoin market is largely dependent on a select group of individuals and organizations that maintain the network.

Stark also made a prediction regarding the future regulation of cryptocurrencies after the upcoming 2024 presidential election. According to the ex-SEC official, if the candidate from the Republican Party wins, the presidential administration will take a more loyal position towards the crypto industry. Then SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will retire, and SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, known for her friendly attitude towards cryptocurrencies, will take his post. This means that the SEC will end its tough enforcement action against crypto companies and approve bitcoin spot ETFs.

Esther Pierce has long criticized the agency for rejecting applications from companies wishing to launch cryptocurrency ETFs. Pierce believes that this slows down the development of the industry, and the United States may lag behind other countries that have already launched similar products.