16 of the 20 market forecasts of the founder of the BitMEX crypto -tank Arthur Hais were incorrect. Two were accurate, two more concern future prices and are not yet to be checked. This conclusion was reached by the PROTOS publication, having analyzed the 20 market forecasts of the ex-head earlier than the largest exchanger of derivatives on crypto, writes RBC Crypto.
Arthur Hayes is one of the most conflicting figures on the crypto. He is known for his long essays on the topic of cryptocurrencies in the global economy, as well as vivid forecasts. He is also the current IT director of the Maelstrom investment fund, which specializes in cryptocurrencies, and the former head of the Bitmex cryptocurrency, which was the first to launch unlimited Bitcoin futures. What are unlimited futures in cryptocurrency. Why they are so popular Hayes remains one of the most famous representatives on the crypto. His account on the social network X has about 700 thousand subscribers, and almost every message gains more than 100 thousand views. He gained additional fame, in addition to the founding of BitMex, due to the regular publication of the essays on markets that often quote crypto resources and discuss in the community.
Among the successful forecasts of Hais are the growth of bitcoin in December 2023 amid the expectations of approval of the Bitcoin-ETF spotes in the United States, as well as the short-term reversal of the Ethereum course in October of the same year after the fall below $ 1.6 thousand.
Two more forecasts remain open, one of them is Bitcoin at $ 1 million by 2028. As one of the main reasons for this growth, Hais called the United States inability to “curb state expenses.”
In October 2020, the United States authorities presented BitMex and its founders Arthur Hayes, Benjamin Case and Samuel Reed, as well as the executive director of the Gregori Duyer platform for violations of the law: the exchange did not introduce the necessary system to combat money laundering (AML), did not carry out customer vestments (KYC procedure) and served Customers from the United States, without registering in commissions on commodity futures (CFTC). All four pleaded guilty, received conditional terms and agreed to pay fines. All of them were pardoned by US President Donald Trump at the end of March 2025. According to Benjamin, according to Coindesk, the Bitmex exchange as the most successful in his segment, as well as his colleagues, became “victims for political reasons and were used as an example”, which the US regulators wanted to show the rest of the cryptocurrency.
Examples of Hace forecasts
Despite many erroneous forecasts, Hayes himself recognized the failures of his assumptions. For example, at the end of September 2024, he analyzed eight of his last forecasts at that time, covering the period from 2023 to autumn 2024. Unfortunately, only six of them turned out to be true.
“This is quite bad for an ordinary person,” Hais commented on his results.
Here are some of the recent forecasts that have not come true.
On September 6, 2024, Hais said that Bitcoin “would go under $ 50 thousand this weekend”, and announced the opening of a short position (to reduce the price). Then the price fell only to $ 52.5 thousand, and the coin began as a rising movement – already in December, the price of bitcoin for the first time exceeded $ 100 thousand.
In early January 2025, Hais predicted the peak of cryptornka in March, but the maximum capitalization of the cryptocurrency market came on January 20 – the day of the inauguration of Donald Trump. And by March, the capitalization of the crypto was approximately 30% lower than the peak in January.
Already in March, the founder of Bitmex relied on the fact that Bitcoin will grow to $ 110 thousand. Before $ 76.5 thousand touches again. But already in April the quotes dropped below $ 75 thousand, and the predicted $ 110 thousand were not reached, according to CoinmarketCap on May 14.
Another unfulfilled forecast for growth touched several tokens at once, including Bio, Vita, Ath, Grow, Psy, Cryo and Neuron. In early January, in one of the next essay, Hais noted the prospects of these tokens – since the beginning of the year they all lost from 28 to 89% in price.
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Source: Cryptocurrency
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