President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) travels, this Monday (14), with a Brazilian delegation to Moscow, where he is due to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In recent days, Bolsonaro reaffirmed the maintenance of the trip despite the imminence of conflict involving Russia, Ukraine and NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization). “I go to Russia by invitation, trade and peace,” the president told CNN.
The meeting will only be attended by the two heads of state and the translators. Then, they will make a speech of up to 15 minutes each.
experts heard by CNN commented on the delicate moment of Bolsonaro’s visit to Russia and the diplomatic role that Brazil plays with the trip, which takes place in the face of tensions involving a possible conflict with Ukraine and pressure from Western countries such as the United States and NATO members.
Bolsonaro visits Russia to escape diplomatic isolation
In the opinion of USP professor and historian specializing in Russia, Angelo Segrillo, the visit of the Brazilian president is an attempt “to get out of the diplomatic isolation he has been in since Trump left the presidency of the United States”.
He explains that the intention is repeated by Putin’s side. “He is also a little diplomatically isolated. So it is important for him to have the visit,” he said.
“Brazil is not a central country in this conflict, but Brazil is half of South America. So having the Brazilian president there is a way of reaffirming Putin’s prestige,” he added.
The professor also adds that the Brazilian president should speak about Ukraine only if Putin himself raises the issue.
Bolsonaro told CNN that the trip will serve to address commercial interests, such as in the area of energy and agribusiness (fertilizers).
However, Professor Segrillo, who is also a researcher at the Pushkin Institute in Moscow, said that “the reason given is not very credible”. “It doesn’t make much sense for the Brazilian president to go to Russia to deal with import issues. For this, the Minister of Agriculture should go, who is not going because she has Covid-19. I think the visit is more for political reasons,” he argued.
He highlights that Bolsonaro and Putin find affinity in the way they think about some issues. “The conservatism of customs. Putin says his ideology is healthy conservatism. I think they’re making a connection out there,” he said.
Brazil’s margin of action in negotiation is very small
ESPM International Relations professor Denilde Holzhacker assesses that President Bolsonaro will visit Russia at a “critical moment”. However, according to the expert, Brazil has little to do in the face of tensions involving Ukraine.
“Although Brazil is considered an important country in the international scenario, our margin of action in negotiation is very small”, he considered.
Holzhacker warned of the impression that the Brazilian entourage may cause of allegedly supporting the interests of Russian President Vladimir Putin. “It is a very delicate moment, because it can signal Brazilian support for Putin’s and Russia’s elections, which is not necessarily within our foreign policy agenda,” he said.
In the professor’s opinion, Brazil has supported and built a growing rapprochement with the United States and other NATO members. However, the country also has an important economic relationship with Russia, especially in matters involving agribusiness. For her, the trip “raises a question about what our interests are”.
However, Holzhacker reinforces that the tensions between Russia and Ukraine are not of direct interest to Brazil. According to the expert, the country should keep diplomatic channels open, since it has no capacity to mediate or negotiate in the face of imminent conflict.
“Diplomatic victory for Russia”
For Maurício Santoro, political scientist and professor of International Relations at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), President Jair Bolsonaro’s trip to Russia can be considered a diplomatic victory for Putin and Russia.
As explained during an interview with CNN this Monday (14), the trip can be used by the Russian government to “show” that they are not isolated on the political issue.
“If it were a normal moment in international politics, this trip would be perfectly legitimate and peaceful, Russia is Brazil’s commercial and political partner. The problem is the conjuncture, a scenario of tensions involving Russia, the European Union and the United States and the risk that Brazil ends up a victim of this ‘crossfire’ between countries that are partners”, says the professor.
Santoro assesses that another great risk is that Bolsonaro’s gestures are interpreted as support for Vladimir Putin, even if the Russian president should not attempt “any action that represents embarrassment” against Bolsonaro.
“Right now, it seems to me that the best solution would be to postpone the visit. Keep that visit on the agenda, but not for now,” she says. “For President Putin, the simple fact that President Bolsonaro is going to Russia is a diplomatic victory,” Santoro added during the interview.
The professor explains that a war in Ukraine could affect the international market and, therefore, Brazil – with an increase in the price of oil, fertilizers, among other products. Thus, he understands that the best way is to maintain the position so that the conflict can be resolved peacefully.
“Right now, it seems to me that the best solution would be to postpone the visit. Keep it on the agenda, but postpone it”, says Santoro.
Source: CNN Brasil
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