On the morning of August 15, the bitcoin rate updated its two-month high at $25.2 thousand. Since mid-June, the cryptocurrency has risen in price by more than 40%. However, almost immediately after reaching the local peak, the price of the asset fell. As of 15:20 Moscow time, bitcoin is trading at $24 thousand, over the past day it has fallen in price by 2%.
Experts RBC-Crypto explained the reasons for the last rise in the price of the first cryptocurrency and talked about its prospects.
$25,000 is a strong resistance level at which there are a large number of sell transactions, said Maria Stankevich, development director at exmo.com. She predicted that now the rate of the first cryptocurrency will drop to $22,000 and $18,000.
“We are still in a bearish trend, the market is not yet ready to change direction,” the specialist is sure.
According to her, if you look at the trading volumes of the stock market (it is highly correlated with cryptocurrency), you can see that they decrease significantly as prices rise. This indicates the weakness of the uptrend, because a strong uptrend is accompanied by either uniform or growing trading volumes.
The expert also recalled that in the last 8 years, September is the most difficult month for bitcoin. On average, the cryptocurrency shows a decline of 7.6% in the first month of autumn.
The bitcoin rate follows the dynamics of world stock indices, primarily American ones, Artem Deev, head of the analytical department at AMarkets, agreed. He explained the recent growth of the crypto market by the publication of inflation data in the US in July.
“Investors around the world breathed a sigh of relief and started investing again in technology sector securities and risk assets. But this is just a temporary respite, nothing more,” Deev warned.
He added that low, contrary to expectations, inflation in the United States was the reason for investors to decide: now the Fed will not aggressively raise the rate, which means that there are all prospects for growth. At the same time, the regulator immediately made it clear that the rate increase would continue, since the decline in inflation is a temporary phenomenon.
According to the expert, the growth of the crypto market led by bitcoin is a technical short-term rebound. Fundamentally, the picture for digital assets remains negative, Deev said.
“The prospects for raising rates of central banks around the world, the intentions of American regulators to tighten control over the work of crypto exchanges, the fall in GDP in Europe and the United States – all these reasons do not provide an opportunity for the growth of cryptocurrencies in the medium term,” the analyst emphasized.
He concluded that bitcoin would not return to last year’s highs by the end of the year, it could drop to $10-12 thousand. According to Deev, the mark of $25 thousand is a local maximum of bitcoin, which may not be repeated before the end of the year.
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