Experts predicted the Bitcoin rate next week

“Effective Risk Management”

BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov

In the past week, Bitcoin buyers set a new historical maximum price – $73,777. An upward trend prevailed in the market with periodic profit-taking by traders. The price was supported by institutional buyers – MicroStrategy and investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs.

After updating the historical maximum, price volatility increased. The rise in US government bond yields jumped due to the strengthening of the dollar. At the end of the week, during corrections, a large number of liquidations of long positions were observed.

On March 11, Bitcoin renewed its all-time high at $72,800. During the day, the BTC/USDT pair increased by 4.53% to $72,078. The growth was fueled by news of the London Stock Exchange's plans to launch trading in exchange-traded notes (ETN) for Bitcoin and Ether, as well as a large purchase of 12,000 BTC by MicroStrategy.

On March 12, the price fell 0.87% to $71,452 after a 6% correction from $73,000. The low of the day was $68,620. During the pullback, longs worth $68.45 million were liquidated due to stop orders being triggered.

Liquidation is the closing of open positions on an exchange or brokerage platform when the trader's account is no longer able to support open positions due to significant losses or insufficient margin.

On March 13, Bitcoin reached a new high of $73,312. At the end of the day, the BTC/USDT pair increased by 2.27% to $73,072. The growth was supported by expectations halvingthe popularity of Bitcoin ETFs and the high demand for Bitcoin.

On March 14, the market experienced increased volatility. In Asia, the price reached $73,777. But then there was a decline of 2.3% to $71,388. At the moment, the level of $68,555 was tested against the backdrop of rising US government bond yields after the release of inflation data in the US.

On March 15, the BTC/USDT pair fell by 2.65%, to $69,499. The price drop began on March 14 from the level of $73,777. After recovering to $72,419 from $68,555, active sales began with renewed vigor. Volume analysis showed how sellers were shorting Bitcoin in order to reach major stops and cause a market collapse.

They can be understood. They are angry because Bitcoin is flying up without pullbacks or long stops. They waited for the dollar to rally after the release of inflation data and dealt a massive blow to buyers. Amid the flight from risky assets, the BTC/USDT pair dropped to $65,600. Having collected liquidity in the form of stops, the price recovered by 7.7%, to $70,650.

The large-scale drop led to the liquidation of long positions worth $145 million and, in parallel, to the liquidation of short positions worth $74 million. At the end of the day, the total amount of BTC liquidations exceeded $200 million. Over two days, $256 million of BTC longs were liquidated on the market.

The fall on March 5 was 14.5%, on March 15 – by 9.4%. The weekly candle remains slightly positive. Closing the week above $70,300 – $70,500 will keep the movement towards $75,000. According to BitRiver estimates, key targets are near the psychological level of $80 thousand.

In the new week, I expect increased volatility to continue, which could lead to serious spills more than once. Falls of 10-15% against the trend are normal. By and large, prices should remain in a sideways trend until the halving. This will allow buyers to regroup in order to continue the rally towards the round value of $100 thousand. Such targets for BTC are seen due to the shortage of coins in the spot market and high demand from institutional investors.

Effective risk management becomes important. Traders are advised to monitor their margin levels, especially during high market volatility, to avoid liquidation and losses. New attacks by sellers could collapse BTC to $60,000.

“Get ready for a roller coaster ride”

Co-founder of the ENCRY Foundation Roman Nekrasov

The crypto market has entered a stage of increased volatility. Last week, Bitcoin updated its historical highs several times, coming very close to $75,000, after which cascading liquidations of positions threw the cryptocurrency rate back to $71,000. At the end of the week, there was a sharp reversal of the trend: Bitcoin dropped below $70,000, and on Sunday night the cryptocurrency briefly traded below $65,000.

The main reason for Bitcoin’s sudden decline was data on rising consumer prices in the United States, published on March 12. According to the Ministry of Labor, inflation accelerated to 3.2% in February versus 3.1% in January, although market participants expected inflation to remain at the January level. The unexpected return of consumer prices to growth, albeit slightly, has raised fears among investors that the US Federal Reserve will postpone the decision to cut the key rate, which is now expected in June.

By Friday, fear had gripped the crypto market and it turned red. Bitcoin, and after it other leading cryptocurrencies, began to fall. Ethereum (ETH) dropped below $3,800, and the memcoins Shiba Inu (SHIB) and Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped noticeably in price, losing more than 16% in a week. However, this is a slight decrease compared to their phenomenal growth since February. The growth of individual cryptocurrencies, such as BNB, CAKE or SOL, was associated mainly with news relating specifically to these projects.

Investor fears about the US Federal Reserve's slow easing of monetary policy have also put pressure on capital inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. On March 14, one of the lowest net inflows into the BTC ETF was recorded – $132 million. For comparison, on March 12, the inflow into the funds exceeded $1 billion.

Next week, investors will focus on the US Federal Reserve meeting, which will take place on March 19 and 20. Although none of the market participants expects that a decision will be made to reduce the key rate, the meeting will still be the main event of the coming week. Investors will look for signals about the timing of the rate cut in the statements of the American regulator following the meeting.

The forces of bears and bulls are now balanced, so the situation may develop either in the direction of an increase in the rate and its return to $72,000, or in the direction of a decrease to $62,000. In anticipation of the halving, investors should prepare for a “roller coaster”. Rate jumps can reach 15-20% of the value of the cryptocurrency. Based on this, it is necessary to review the placed orders and assess risk tolerance.