The dollar and bitcoin rates have been moving in opposite directions lately. BTC has been falling in price since January 8, and during this time it has lost 25% of its value in dollars and 22% in rubles. As of January 28, it is $ 32 thousand and 2.36 million rubles, respectively, according to tradingview.com. Over the same period, the American currency strengthened against the Russian by 4% to 76.4 rubles / $, writes RBC Crypto.
Reasons for the fall of bitcoin and when to buy it
Bitcoin may continue to fall, warned the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artem Deev. In his opinion, there is a risk that its price will drop to $ 20 thousand, and it is worth waiting for this level to buy the coin at the optimal price.
“Bitcoin is falling as a correction began after a rapid rise. This is also fueled by expectations that institutional investors will start taking profits. If this happens, it can provoke panic in the market, massive sales and a fall in the asset to $ 20 thousand, ”explained Deev.
Now it is wiser to wait with the purchase of the first cryptocurrency, since quotes can fall to $ 24 thousand due to lack of demand, agreed financial analyst at Currency.com Mikhail Karkhalev. He advises traders to keep an eye on the $ 30-31 thousand zone and wait for either a strong drop or a sharp rise, which will indicate the appearance of buyers.
“Above $ 34 thousand – $ 35 thousand, there is no demand, the price is looking for the nearest zones where it will start to recover. Now this range is from $ 30 thousand to $ 31 thousand. If demand in this zone also decreases, then most likely the price will fall to $ 24 thousand, ”Karkhalev suggested.
The current weakening of Bitcoin was inevitable, as it had previously become too overvalued, explained United Traders analyst Fyodor Anashenkov. From September to early January, the BTC rate increased from $ 10 thousand to $ 42 thousand.In the future, the next month or two, the correction in the crypto market is likely to continue, but the situation may improve if the US government adopts new programs to stimulate the economy, the expert suggested.
“If the US Federal Reserve turns on the printing press again, investors can run with renewed vigor into cryptocurrencies in search of salvation from possible dollar inflation,” Anashenkov admitted.
From his point of view, another reason for the rise in the price of bitcoin may be the further spread of cryptocurrencies. In particular, we are talking about the promised payment system PayPal the inclusion of several new coins in the list of payment methods in millions of outlets. It is possible that following PayPal, other financial and payment companies will also begin to integrate digital currencies, the expert said.
What to do with the dollar
Now the dollar is becoming more expensive not only against the ruble. Since the beginning of the month, the DXY Index, which shows the value of the dollar against a basket of 6 leading world currencies, has risen from 89.2 points to 90.8 points, according to tradingview.com. Deev named several reasons for this.
“The dollar is growing, because negative sentiments appeared on world exchanges after the speech of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell: the scale of the pandemic is increasing, vaccinations are taking place slowly, and the prospects for a global economic recovery in the near future are vague. At the same time, the Russian ruble is under pressure from the decline in oil prices and the threat of new sanctions from the US and the EU, “Deyev said.
According to his forecast, the US currency rate may continue to rise and reach the level of 80 rubles. Until this happens, it makes sense to protect your ruble savings, the expert said. He suggested thinking about buying dollars and euros.
If possible, it is worth buying dollars, since the American currency is depreciating more slowly than the Russian one, Karkhalev said. But if the Central Bank supports the ruble with foreign exchange interventions, the dollar will hardly cost more than 80 rubles, he added.
Several multidirectional factors influence the value of the dollar against the ruble, Karkhalev explained. On the one hand, the Russian currency has few prerequisites for strengthening. With the arrival of the new US President Joe Biden, sanctions risks have increased many times, and oil in 2021 is unlikely to rise in price to $ 75-80, which could support the ruble, Karkhalev said.
On the other hand, a large-scale economic stimulus program is planned in the US. If these measures are taken, the dollar against the ruble may fall, Karkhalev admitted.
Now the ruble is one of the most undervalued currencies, and the chances for the dollar to strengthen are small, Anashenkov said. He recalled that the DXY index has dropped 9% since May. This means that the dollar is not rising. In the near future, the downward trend will continue, taking into account the new large-scale monetary incentive program, which was signed by Biden, the expert summed up.
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