Worsening heat and humidity as a result of climate change will bring extremely dangerous temperatures to much of the United States over the next 30 years, increasing the intensity and frequency of the hottest days of the year, according to a new study published Monday. thursday (15th).
Temperatures above the threshold of the National Weather Service’s “extreme hazard” category, when the heat index exceeds 51.6 degrees Celsius, are expected to affect about eight million people in the US this year.
But by 2053, 13 times as many people — 107 million — will experience this extreme and dangerous heat, according to the study by climate research group First Street Foundation.
“The results indicate that the incidence of extreme heat is growing across the country, both in absolute and relative terms,” the study states.
Temperatures in some areas will rise more than others, including the so-called “extreme heat belt” that stretches from Texas to the Great Lakes, according to the nonprofit’s study.
Extreme heat will affect more than 100 million in the US, with temperatures above 52ºC during the hottest times of the year — more than 10 times the number currently expected.
Using a peer-reviewed extreme heat model, the First Street Foundation used property-level data to find the seven hottest days of the year today and compared that to the 30-year equivalent. On average, the seven hottest days will increase to 18 by 2053, the researchers found.
But in the southern half of the country, the number of hottest days will grow to around 30 — meaning the hottest week of the year will become the hottest month in the 2050s, according to the study.
Miami-Dade County, Florida will see the biggest change in temperature extremes, where the hottest seven days of the year in 2023 (heat index 39.4°C) will occur in 34 days in 2053. Other locations in Florida and beyond along the Gulf Coast will likely experience more than 30 additional days of heat indices above 37.7C by 2053, according to the study.
Nationwide, the number of municipalities that must reach a heat index of 52ºC at least once a year will increase more than 20 times, from 50 in 2023 to 1,023 in 2053, according to the study.
The likelihood of local heat waves — defined as temperatures well above normal for three consecutive days — will also increase across the country, but is highest on the west coast, according to the study.
“Interestingly, exposure to Consecutive Local Hot Days is most likely to occur in West Coast states, while Midwest, Southeast, and East Coast states are most at risk of exposure to extremely hazardous temperatures, meaning virtually all of the country is subject to increased hazards associated with exposure to heat,” the study concludes.
The study also determined a projection of change for each of the US states.
Source: CNN Brasil
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