Fed: 5.00% high likely, not expected to pivot before 2024 — Rabobank

The key event next week will be the FOMC meeting. Like most analysts, in rabbank they expect the Fed to raise the target range for the fed funds rate by 75 basis points, to 3.00-3.25%. They consider that the type will reach a maximum of 5.00%.

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“We have revised our Fed forecast upwards. For the September meeting, we now expect 75 basis points instead of 50 basis points. The risk in this forecast is 100 basis points instead of 50 basis points. Next year , we expect the upper part of the target range to reach 5.00% instead of the 4.50% that we had previously in our long-term forecasts.”

“The main reason we remain above consensus in our forecasts for the Fed and money market rates is that we believe a wage price spiral has started that will keep inflation persistent. price stability over full employment, this is going to push the FOMC higher than it currently anticipates.”

“Next year we expect the top of the target range to hit 5.00% and we don’t expect the Fed to pivot before 2024.”

Source: Fx Street

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