Fed Outlook: Three scenarios and their implications for EUR/USD and USD/JPY – TDS

TD Securities economists discuss The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and its implications for EUR/USD and USD/JPY.

Hardline (20%)

“The Fed is making a 25 basis point rate hike, and while the FOMC will likely acknowledge the more uncertain economic environment, especially for credit conditions, it will also emphasize that credit tightening does not appear to be overstated, while the dynamics of inflation remains significantly out of sync with his mandate, so the FOMC sees a need for further tightening. USD/JPY above 138, EUR/USD at 1.08“.

Base case (65%)

“The Fed is making a 25 basis point rate hike, and while the FOMC will likely acknowledge the more uncertain economic environment, especially for credit conditions, it will also emphasize that disinflation has been slower than expected. In this regard , the FOMC will leave the door open for further tightening of monetary policy, if necessary. USD/JPY at 138, EUR/USD at 1.09“.

Moderate (15%)

“The Fed is making a 25 basis point rate hike, with the FOMC acknowledging the more uncertain economic environment, especially for credit conditions. The FOMC will emphasize that risks to the outlook have become almost bi-directional. For Therefore, the FOMC will be patient in watching the effects of cumulative tightening on the data stream. USD/JPY at 136.50/136.00, EUR/USD at 1.1050“.

Source: Fx Street

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