Fed: Soft landing not assured, I expect two cuts in 2024 – Raphael Bostic

Atlanta Federal Reserve (Fed) President Raphael Bostic jumped into the news on Monday following the publication of his quarterly essay.

Key points

• A soft landing is hardly assured given the uncertainty.
• He doesn't foresee back-to-back rate cuts when they begin.
• He still expects two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024.
• I need to see more progress and gain confidence in disinflation before voting to cut interest rates.
• Inflation is on track to return to the 2% target, but it is still too early to claim victory.
• January's hiring was a further sign of the continued strength of the US labor market.
• Inflation remains widespread, with the item share rising above 5%, with the trimmed average stuck at 2.6%.
• The Fed still has time to make sure inflation returns to its target.
• I see no degradation of the American labor market.
• The risks to inflation and employment have balanced.
• The pent-up exuberance of the US economy remains a risk to inflation.
• Companies are not in trouble and are willing to invest.
• Services inflation remains higher, adjustments may take longer to occur.
• There is no baseline assumption as to when it might be appropriate to reduce the pace of balance sheet reduction