Fed: There is no rush to lower interest rates in the US – Christopher Waller

He Governor of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Christopher Wallerdeclared on Thursday that there is no rush to start cutting interest rates. He further stated that he will need to see more evidence that inflation is cooling before he will be willing to support interest rate cuts.

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“The start of monetary policy easing and the number of rate cuts will depend on the data that comes in.”

“He Committee can wait a little longer to relax monetary policy“.

“The idea that delaying cuts by one or two meetings could cause a recession is disconcerting.”

“The alleged asymmetry of the lagged effects of rate hikes versus rate cuts is not supported by any model that I know of.”

“In the absence of a major economic shock, Delaying the cuts for a few months should not have a substantial impact on the economy in the short term

“Cutting too soon could squander inflation progress and risk considerable damage to the economy.”

“Data received since the last speech on January 16 has reinforced the view that we need to verify that inflation progress since the latter half of 2023 will continue.”

“There is no rush to start lowering interest rates.”

“Last week's CPI report is a reminder that continued inflation progress is not assured.”

“It is still unclear whether the CPI was boosted by strange seasonal factors and runaway housing cost increases or whether it is a sign that inflation is tougher than previously thought and will be harder to bring down to target.”

“We need to see more data to know if the January CPI was 'more noise than signal.'”

“This means waiting longer before we have enough confidence that the start of rate cuts will keep us on track for 2% inflation.”

“The strength of output and employment growth means there is 'no great urgency' to ease policy.”

“We still hope to relax the policy this year.”

“The recent hotter-than-expected data validates Chairman Powell's 'careful risk management approach.'”

“The risk of waiting a little longer to relax is smaller than the risk of acting too soon.”

“Several indicators suggest some slowdown in growth.”

“The latest data on job openings and terminations could indicate that the moderation in the labor market may have stalled.”

“Based on the CPI and the PPI, the core CPI for January could be 2.8% at the 12-month rate, 2.4% at the 3-month rate and 2.5% at the 6-month rate.”

“It is comforting to know that the progress made was real and not a mirage.”

“Still sees wage growth 'somewhat elevated' to meet 2% inflation target.”

“Attentive to whether housing costs remain higher than expected.”

“Considering all aspects of inflation, 'I see predominantly upside risks' to the expectation that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target.”

I need to see a couple more months of inflation data to be sure if January was a 'fluke' and we are still on the path to price stability

“There are no signs of an imminent recession.”

Source: Fx Street

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