- The Australian dollar is up 0.69% on the week, despite the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
- AUD/USD needs to break above 0.7200-0.7240 to change the bias to neutral to the upside.
- AUD/USD is neutral to the downside, but upside risks remain.
On Thursday, during the American session, the AUD/USD hit a daily high at 0.7217, followed by a drop below a four-month downtrend line, triggered in part by geopolitical headlines, coupled with the previous one, retracing below 0.7200. AUD/USD is sideways at press time, trading at 0.7193.
During the week, AUD/USD started off on the wrong foot, but recovered on Tuesday when the three-day rally started. On Wednesday, the bullish breakout of the 50-day DMA at 0.7169 sparked a move towards 0.7200, but the AUD bulls fell short of it and stalled at the aforementioned four-month trend line around 0.7204.
On Thursday, the AUD/USD bulls launched an attack but pulled back 80 pips on a Russia/Ukraine headline and failed to recapture the 0.7200 level.
AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Time frame: daily chart.
AUD/USD has a neutral bias slightly skewed to the downside against a wall of solid resistance levels in the 0.7200-40 area. A break of the latter would expose the Jan 20 daily high at 0.7257, followed by Jan 13 at 0.7313.
However, the AUD/USD path of least resistance is to the downside. The first support would be the 50 DMA at 0.7170. A clear break would send the pair falling to the Feb 14 daily low at 0.7085, followed by the Feb 4 daily low at 0.7051.
Additional technical levels
Source: Fx Street
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