FGV IBRE predicts more cautious entrepreneurs in the second half of the year

The Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV IBRE), responsible for the study of the Industry Confidence Index (ICI), released this Tuesday (28), assesses that the electoral dispute, linked to the increase in prices and the of interest rates, should put a brake on the mood of the category in the next semester.

According to the result of the latest survey, the sector’s optimism grew in June for the third consecutive month, but should be weakened by the economic scenario in Brazil.

The economist at FGV IBRE, Stéfano Pacini, explains that these factors should make the prospects for the second half of 2022 not follow the mood registered now.

“We are in an election year and we have been going through problems of inflation and interest rate hikes. These macroeconomic aspects lead entrepreneurs to be more cautious about the prospects of their own businesses, because they can generate uncertainty”, he emphasizes.

Although forecasts for the near future are cautious, this month the ICI reached the highest level since November 2021, reaching 101.2 points. With the number, the indicator has surpassed the neutrality stage, when there is neither optimism nor pessimism on the part of industry representatives.

Pacini points out that a performance above 100 points indicates greater satisfaction and confidence on the part of industrialists in the current conjuncture.

“This result means a good moment, because it shows the acceleration of the metrics that assess the expectations of the entrepreneur in the sector regarding business and the economy”, he ponders.

The researcher also draws attention to the performance in June, which led the index to accumulate its third consecutive rise.

“This month’s result was greatly influenced by a better moment in demand and by a positive feeling from entrepreneurs. This was observed, in particular, in the manufacture of intermediate goods, such as the chemical and oil industry, and consumer goods, such as food, electronics and vehicles. These are strong segments in the country,” he says.

In all, 13 of the 19 classes monitored by the study showed growth in this period. “We observe an expectation of the future in a horizon of three months. In this interval, we believe that entrepreneurs will be more optimistic about decisions to increase production”, he analyzes.