FGV points to an increase in Brazilian imports in May and a drop in surplus

Published this Wednesday (22), the Foreign Trade Indicator of Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Icomex/FGV) points to an increase in volume and price of imports carried out by Brazil in May.

In the same period, there was a reduction in the volume exported, which caused a fall in the surplus in the fourth month of the year, when compared to the same period in 2021.

In the fifth month of the year, according to Icomex, the positive balance of trade in May was US$ 4.9 billion. The number represents a reduction of US$ 3.6 billion compared to May 2021. The phenomenon is explained by the drop in exports to China, the country’s main trading partner.

In the period, the largest contributions to the increase in imported volume were those of petroleum derivatives, such as diesel oil, naphtha, petroleum and products associated with fertilizers.

“Importers, fearing the international situation and the turmoil that has been occurring in the oil market in Brazil, may have anticipated their purchases. It is premature to conclude that a change in the direction of imports has begun. (…) The World Trade Organization has revised the growth of world trade from 4.7% to 3% for 2022, due to the War in Ukraine, the slowdown in growth in China and acceleration of inflation”, reads an excerpt from the disclosure of the indicator. .

According to the publication, in terms of value, exports fell 13.2% in May this year, compared to the same period last year, while imports grew 39.9%.

Despite the reduction in the volume of exports (8.1%), which took place in May, there was an increase in value, justified by the rise in prices (22.5%), repeating a phenomenon that had already occurred in April. When compared to 2021, the volume of imports had been falling since February, after a slight increase of 0.3% in the first month of the year.

The Icomex researchers understand that the environment may become more favorable to Brazil in the trade balance in the coming months. “The surplus in 2022 may still be higher than that of 2021, as long as the change in imported volume slows down in a scenario of rising commodity prices”, points out the publication.

According to the indicator, the volume exported by Brazil in 2022 grew to almost all markets: China, with a reduction of 13.1%, and the other Asian countries, with a retraction of 2.4%, are the exceptions. The largest growth occurred for South American countries, followed by the European Union.