FGV predicts GDP growth of 4.6% in 2021, above market expectations

A projection made by Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), at the request of the CNNpoints out that the volume of wealth produced in Brazil grew by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021, when compared to the previous three months.

If the result materializes, the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be 4.6%, a figure above market expectations, according to economists at the institution.

The estimate was prepared by FGV researchers this Thursday (3), on the eve of the official publication of the Bruno Domestic Product (GDP) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), at 9 am this Friday (4).

The fourth quarter GDP is expected to be ‘pulled’ by the services sector, with an upward trend of 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2021 when compared to the previous three months. The positive highlight of the segment is public and private transport.

Also with a positive result appears the agricultural sector, which recorded a recovery in the fourth quarter, after suffering from the embargo on Brazilian meat, imposed by China in September. THE CNNFGV economist Mayara Santiago highlights the sector’s influence on Brazil’s GDP growth.

“Agribusiness is a very seasonal sector, and it ended up positively impacting the last three months of the year. Four-quarter GDP growth was nearly 4% compared to the previous quarter. Along with seasonal issues, we have to take into account the Chinese embargo on the Brazilian market, which greatly harmed the segment in the third quarter of 2021”, emphasizes Mayara Santiago.

According to the economist, the sector that disappointed was the industry, with an approximate retreat of 0.6% in the period. She points out that companies have been affected by the shortage of raw materials caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.