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FGV predicts increase of 0.3% in January in the IPCA-15

A projection made by Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV), at the request of the CNN, this Tuesday (25th), shows that the IPCA-15 (Extended National Consumer Price Index-15), considered the preview of inflation, should have a high of 0.3% in January, compared to the last month of 2021. The official indicator will be released, this Wednesday (26), by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).

AT CNN, the economist at FGV, André Braz, stated that the expectation is for positive inflation for the coming months. He explained that the indicator will be pressured by electricity and crops damaged by the lack of rain.

“The south of the country is going through a period of drought, which affects the value of foods such as chicken, meat, rice, milk and derivatives, which can rise by up to 15%. The impact of seasonal issues, such as summer and the la niña phenomenon, causes crop failures and affects inflation throughout the year. Harvesting corn, for example, makes chicken meat more expensive as it is the main feed for birds,” said the economist.

Braz also draws attention to the water scarcity, which damages the reservoirs and makes the government activate more thermoelectric plants, a factor that makes the electricity bill more expensive. For the economist, energy should remain on the inflation radar this year, and the trend is for the indicator to increase in the first months of 2022. However, he expects the index to decelerate in the second half of the year.

“We expect greater inflationary persistence in the first quarter of this year, taking into account unfavorable weather conditions, such as lack of rain. But, the trend is that, from the second quarter, if there is an improvement in climate issues, the index will slow down”, says André Braz.

Although the readjustment in the value of gasoline has been increasing, Braz points out that, in this preview, it still should not be so expressive, since the readjustment of the fuel announced by Petrobras took place only in early January. He predicts that fuel prices will start to affect inflation from February. In addition to gasoline, for the next month, the projection will also be impacted by school fees.

Reference: CNN Brasil

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