FGV preview points to a 1.4% drop in the Brazilian economy in January

Preview by Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) for the official Gross Domestic Product, calculated by the IBGE, the GDP Monitor released this Monday (21) an estimate of a 1.4% drop in economic activity in January, when compared to that of December of last year. In the quarterly analysis, growth was 1.2% in the period ended in January, against 2% in the previous period, ended in October.

The study performs quarterly analyzes on the four components of demand, as it understands that they are less susceptible to volatilities. Coordinator of FGV’s GDP Monitor, economist Cláudio Considera explains that the Brazilian economy grew by an average of 1.1% in the pre-pandemic period, and has seen this level drop to 0.4% since the arrival of Covid-19, with impacts on the economy. demand and in supply. The fall, for him, is linked to the reduction in demand.

“These numbers translate well the impact of the pandemic on results that were already mediocre before it. Household consumption and government consumption represent 80% of GDP and were significantly harmed initially by the lack of vaccines and later by the lack of a vaccination program, as is well illustrated by the failure of this demand during the pandemic.”, says Considera.

Household consumption fell by 1.3% when compared to the previous quarter, although, compared to the same period last year, it increased by 1.9%. For the fourth consecutive month, it was the only component to show positive rates.

Gross fixed capital formation, a component that calculates investment in fixed assets to expand the economy’s productive capacity, grew 1.3% in relation to the previous moving quarter. However, the machinery and equipment group was the only one to show a retraction: it fell 8.7%.

Exports increased 5.6% in relation to the same period of the previous year, driven by agriculture. However, when the comparison is made with the quarter ended in October, there was a retraction of 0.6%.

Imports increased 2.2% compared to the same quarter of 2021, with growth qualified as surprising by the survey for imports of services (10.5%), in addition to the high growth of mineral extraction (54.1%). When compared to the quarter ended in October, the increase was 1.2%.

Source: CNN Brasil

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