Find out if it’s time to buy or sell Gol shares, which will go private

Brazilian airline Gol and Colombian airline Avianca announced this Wednesday (11) the formation of a holding company, called Grupo Abra, under which the two aviation groups will share the same business platform.

Gol and Avianca will maintain independent operations, while, according to a statement, “they benefit from greater efficiency and investments made by the same controlling group”. However, the new company will be privately held and headquartered in Wales, UK.

Thus, Gol shareholders must receive an amount – not yet defined – on the share price. Experts interviewed by CNN Brasil Business pointed out that this is the time to buy the company’s shares, not sell them .

But first, they all warn that the scenario is still very vague because it is not possible to understand how the value that minority shareholders should gain will be defined.

According to the material fact of the merger: “the transaction will not entail the obligation to carry out a public offer for the acquisition of control for minority shareholders, since there will be no sale or transfer of shareholding control”.

The takeover bid, or OPA, is a mechanism used by companies that are going to stop offering their shares on a stock exchange, and that have had their shares sold to a third party – as can happen with Twitter and Elon Musk – and , so in this example, shareholders would receive an amount set by Tesla’s CEO.

“Neither MOBI FIA (investment fund) nor the Constantino brothers (founders of the airline) will sell, directly or indirectly, any shares in Gol,” the statement said.

suggestions

Heitor de Nicola, variable income advisor at Acqua Vero Investimentos, believes that, for now, the best option is to wait for the approval of the companies’ union before taking some action. At the moment, he points out that the merger movement is positive for both groups.

And he, like BTG Pactual and Ilan Arbetman, Research analyst at Ativa, have a buy position on Gol’s shares.

In a report, the bank stated that “the new alliance reflects the redesign of partnerships in the airline industry globally and regionally, triggered by structural changes of shareholders and challenges of Covid-19. The deal is positive for Gol, so we reiterate our purchase in one of our preferences in the aviation sector”.

The paper ended the session this Wednesday at R$ 12.94, down 1.67%.

Arbetman, in turn, declares that there will be a possible expansion of routes and adaptation of the networks, a movement that can mitigate some costs. “In other words, it is not the time to sell the papers”.

“In addition to financial and tax issues because they will be two large companies and the holding’s shareholders will have better conditions to refinance liabilities”, declared the expert.

Fabio Louzada, economist and founder of the Eu Me Banco school, says that, despite agreeing to wait for the next steps of the merger, he prefers “to leave the tourism and travel sector and go to others that have better margins and can benefit from the current interest rate scenario”.

The expert points out that bank shares tend to hold up “in bad scenarios”. Louzada also argues that the travel sector has little margin and a lot of risk, as they are exposed to several factors.

Moves already made by the market

Immediately, the market showed a movement of approval in relation to the merger, so much so that Gol’s shares rose almost 2% after the announcement of the operation. In an interview with CNN the financial consultant Paulo Bittencourt explained that the movement of companies can bring more air routes.

However, he highlights the tendency for the company’s shares to begin to fall as the days approach the closing of capital, scheduled for probably the second half of the year.

“The merger happened because companies were having difficulty [na pandemia] and they had a loss… in addition, the price of fuel is very high, which affects around 30% to 40% of airline costs”, recalls the analyst at CNN Priscilla Yazbek. So, the operation aims to give financial support to the companies.