Finland and Sweden on NATO ‘threshold’ – Why their membership matters

By Alison Durkee

The prime ministers of Sweden and Finland said in a press conference on Wednesday that they were considering joining NATO – a move that would ensure that members of the North Atlantic Alliance would assist Stockholm and Helsinki in their defense. possible Russian invasion. At the same time, Moscow is threatening retaliation if the two Nordic countries join NATO.

As is well known, NATO member states are bound by a “collective defense” agreement, which means that “an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all allies” and requires the other countries to provide military assistance to the one who accepts the attack.

Finland and Sweden maintained a neutral stance towards the Soviet Union during the Cold War, in which the North Atlantic Alliance was formed. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the two countries are considering joining the Alliance, as fears have been raised that Moscow could invade the Nordic countries as well. It is recalled that the third country of the Scandinavian Peninsula, Norway, is already a member of NATO.

Finland, which borders Russia to the east, declared its independence from Moscow in 1917 and was invaded by the Soviet Union in 1939. Sweden does not share a land border with Russia, but according to Deutsche Welle, Moscow could use the Swedish island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea to attack Stockholm if a war breaks out in the region.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson and her Finnish counterpart Sanaa Marin told reporters on Wednesday that both countries were reconsidering their NATO membership, with Marin noting: “Everything changed when Russia invaded Ukraine.”

The Finnish Prime Minister stressed that the decision will be taken “in the coming weeks”, while Reuters reported that the review by Stockholm is expected to be completed by the end of May. A DW report estimates that the two countries may decide to join the Alliance by June.

In the face of this possibility, Russia will not remain inactive. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov said Russia would “restore the balance of power” if Finland and Sweden joined NATO, while Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement that concequenses”.

“There is a landmark date of February 24,” Anderson said on Wednesday, referring to the day the Russian invasion began. “From that day on, the security landscape has changed completely.”

Earlier in April, Peshkov reiterated that “NATO is essentially a means of confrontation.” commenting on the possible accession of Finland and Sweden to the Alliance. “NATO does not guarantee peace and stability. Certainly, its enlargement will not strengthen the security climate in Europe.”

Joining NATO will be a multi-month or multi-year process for Helsinki and Stockholm, as the candidate countries will have formal consultations with the Alliance leadership and then have to obtain the approval of all existing members. (In the US, 2/3 of senators will have to vote in favor of countries joining). However, Finland and Sweden are likely to go through this process more easily than other countries, as already NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has stated that these countries have met the standards of the Alliance for “political and democratic control of the security institutions and the armed forces by the citizens”. Elizabeth Brow, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said in an article in Politico that the two countries might receive an invitation from NATO to start the process much sooner than the long wait for other countries. Stoltenberg appeared “confident that the Alliance will find ways to address concerns about the period between the possible request and its approval,” according to the Washington Post, which means that NATO could provide some protection if the Russia retaliates against Finland or Sweden before the two countries become official members.

Finland and Sweden will have allied support – militarily – as they are members of the European Union, and all EU members have an obligation under the bloc treaty to help other members in the event of a military attack. (NATO would also oblige the United States to provide military assistance.) In a letter to the President of the European Council, Marin and Anderson reminded the EU of this commitment, if necessary.

NATO has been a major factor in escalating Russia’s aggression against Ukraine over the past 14 years, as well as supporting Kiev in its 50 days of hostilities. Former US President George W. Bush has insisted that NATO extend an open invitation to join Ukraine and Georgia, prompting a strong reaction from Vladimir Putin, who was outraged by the prospect of the North Atlantic Alliance reaching Russia’s borders. NATO member states do not intervene militarily in Ukraine, as the country does not belong to the Alliance, but have offered significant support to Kyiv during the conflict. NATO has doubled its military presence in Eastern Europe in response to the Russian invasion, according to the BBC, and member states have donated military equipment to Ukraine’s armed forces.

Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO soon. Although Ukraine’s Constitution contains an amendment committing it to NATO membership, Kiev’s effort is hampered by the fact that it has not yet met the Alliance’s requirements for democratic institutions, the New York Times notes, and should carry out more anti-corruption reforms to pave the way for integration. NATO also wants its members to “strengthen the Alliance ‘s security, not undermine it,” Rafael Los, the European Council’ s International Relations Coordinator, told Euronews. The Alliance does not seem willing to get involved in the deadlocked territorial disputes between Ukraine and Russia over Crimea and the Donbas region.

Read also:

The Times: Finland and Sweden will join NATO this summer

Sweden: historic turn for the ruling Social Democrats – Support NATO membership