Finland and Sweden weigh the pros and cons of NATO membership

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden to the brink of applying for NATO membership, according to Reuters.

Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometer border with Russia, and Sweden will announce their decisions in the coming days amid warnings from Moscow that it could develop nuclear weapons and supersonic missiles in Kaliningrad if they do.

Any requests will herald a tense wait during the months it will take for ratification by all NATO members, although the alliance and the White House have said they are confident any security concerns can be addressed in the meantime. .

The following are some of the events that led to a radical rethinking of the two countries’ policies and what could be the next steps towards NATO membership.

Why are Sweden and Finland not members of NATO?

Finland gained its independence from Russia in 1917 and waged two wars against it during World War II, during which it lost some territories from Moscow. Finland signed a Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Aid Agreement with Russia in 1948, consolidating a degree of economic and political dependence and isolating it militarily from Western Europe.

– The end of the Cold War, which brought about the dissolution of the Soviet Union, allowed Finland to emerge from Russia’s shadow as the threat from Moscow diminished.

It has relied on its own military strength and friendly relations with Moscow to maintain peace. But with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special operation,” Russian President Vladimir Putin seems far from friendly.

Sweden has not been at war for 200 years and post-war foreign policy has focused on supporting democracy internationally, multilateral dialogue and nuclear disarmament.

– After the Cold War it reduced its army, hoping that in the event of any conflict it could delay a Russian advance until help arrived. Putin’s attack on Ukraine has made the guarantee of aid much more attractive.

However, many leftists in Sweden remain skeptical of the US and NATO security agenda, which is based on the deterrent provided by the US nuclear arsenal.

Both Finland and Sweden went from formal neutrality to non-aligned defense policy in 1995 when they joined the European Union.

Both countries have come closer and closer to NATO in recent years, exchanging information and participating in alliance exercises in response to an increasingly belligerent Russia.

– Joining NATO would bring Sweden and Finland under the umbrella of Article 5, which guarantees that an attack on a NATO ally is an attack on all allies.

What is the support for NATO membership?

Polls show that a significant majority of Swedes support NATO membership, with the latest poll showing more than 60% support, with a majority in parliament in favor of the request.

Sweden’s Social Democrats – the largest party in power for most of the last century – have long advocated a non-aligned defense policy, but have reconsidered their objections and a decision on whether to join NATO is expected on Sunday.

The Swedish Left Party – a former communist party – remains opposed to membership, as is the Green Party, but if the Social Democrats change their stance, it will create an overwhelming majority in parliament in favor of membership.

Polls show that support for membership in Finland is even stronger than in Sweden, as many Finns consider the long land border they share with Russia, and support for parliament in favor of an application is also widespread.

– The Finnish parliament’s defense committee said this week that NATO membership is the best option for Finland to have guarantees for its national security.

– Finnish President Sauli Niinisto is expected to announce his stance on NATO membership on Thursday, while Prime Minister Sanna Marin is also expected to voice her views. Both are widely expected to support the application for membership.

When could they join?

Finland has an “option” for NATO, a kind of action plan that calls for its implementation in the event of a deteriorating security situation, and the Swedish parliament will present a new review of security policy on Friday, although the latter is not expected. contain an explicit recommendation on NATO.

Sweden’s Social Democrats convened a parliamentary debate on NATO on Monday. If the party is expected to support accession, the government could convene a vote in Parliament on the application, but is not formally obliged to do so.

– Sanna Marin, leader of Finland’s center-left coalition, and President Sauli Niinisto have toured various NATO member states in recent weeks, securing support for a possible bid.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, also a Social Democrat, has also held a number of meetings with leaders of NATO member states, including Britain’s Boris Johnson, who toured both Sweden and Finland on Wednesday.