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Finland, Sweden end decades of neutrality – Why not join NATO today

After decades of neutrality and mediation in the pursuit of peace in many world crises, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 81 days ago drastically changed the stance of Finland and Sweden, bringing these two countries one step closer to joining NATO.

Russia’s military invasion of neighboring Ukraine has forced Sweden and Finland to side with NATO since the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded in 1949.

These historic developments have translated into a wave of support for the two Nordic countries for membership in the North Atlantic Alliance, as their candidacy is in the final stages of approval in the Parliaments of the two countries.

Amid Moscow’s threats that Russia could develop nuclear weapons and supersonic missiles in the European enclave of Kaliningrad if Finland joins NATO, Finland, which shares a 1,300-kilometer border with Russia, and Sweden are expected to do so. in the North Atlantic Alliance, but both are concerned that they will be vulnerable during the processing of their applications, a process that can take up to a year.

Any applications for membership in the North Atlantic Alliance will cause a tense wait in the months needed to be ratified by all NATO members, although the Alliance and the White House have stated that they are confident that any security concerns could be addressed. in the interim.

Why are Sweden and Finland not members of NATO?

Both countries remain non-aligned after World War II, despite having small military forces relative to Russia.

Finland gained its independence from Russia in 1917 and faced it in two wars, during which it lost part of its territory to Moscow. Finland signed a Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Aid Agreement with Russia in 1948, consolidating a degree of economic and political dependence and remaining militarily isolated from Western Europe.

The end of the Cold War, which led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union, allowed Finland to emerge from Russia’s shadow as the threat from Moscow diminished.

Helsinki relied on its own military deterrence and friendly relations with Moscow to maintain peace. But with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special military operation,” Russian President Vladimir Putin seems far from friendly.

Sweden has not been at war for 200 years and post-war foreign policy has focused on supporting democracy internationally, multilateral dialogue and nuclear disarmament.

Stockholm reduced its army after the Cold War, hoping that in the event of war it could delay Russian advance until aid arrived. Putin’s attack on Ukraine has made the bailout much more attractive.

However, many on the left in Sweden remain skeptical of the US and NATO security agenda, which ultimately builds on the deterrent provided by the US nuclear arsenal.

Both Finland and Sweden switched from formal neutrality to military non-alignment in 1995 when they joined the European Union.

Both have become increasingly close to NATO in recent years, exchanging information and participating in alliance exercises in response to an increasingly belligerent Russia.

Joining the Alliance will bring Sweden and Finland under the umbrella of Article 5, which guarantees that an attack on a NATO ally is an attack on everyone.

From years of negative attitude to overwhelming support within a few months

The Social Democratic Party of Finnish Prime Minister Sana Marin announced on Saturday that it supports by a very large majority the Nordic country’s accession to NATO, the candidacy for which will be formalized today Sunday.

“There is a big difference between the situation in Sweden and Finland. Due to the proximity of the borders, there is a hysteria and a fear of the Russian threat in the Finnish media,” the Finnish professor of international relations at the University of Finland told APE-MPE. Timo Kivikaki.

“In January, support for NATO membership was only 19% and now exceeds 70%,” he added. On the contrary, he adds, in Sweden there is a balanced public opinion on the pros and cons of joining the North Atlantic Alliance.

Polls show support for Finland’s accession is even stronger than in Sweden, with many Finns taking into account the country’s long land border with Russia, while Parliament’s support for an application is also wide.

However, many are those, elected or ordinary citizens, who distinguish some studies.

“What has changed since the Cold War, when Finland and Sweden sought a rapprochement with the Soviet Union in times of crisis, is that now each country moves on its own and is motivated by a sense of security, not a sense of peace, as in the Nordic “, he added, adding that the type of relationship that Helsinki and Stockholm will develop if they join NATO will be very important. “Another is to allow military bases and develop nuclear weapons, and another is a more defensive approach like Norway does.”

Polls suggest a significant majority of Swedes support joining NATO, a support of more than 60% in the last poll, and a majority in Parliament to approve an application for membership in the North Atlantic Alliance.

Sweden’s Social Democrats – the largest party in power for most of the last century – have long argued for military non-alignment, but on Sunday reconsidered their objections with a decision on whether to join now. They are widely expected to support integration.

On Friday, a day after neighboring Finland pledged to join the 30-member Alliance, Swedish Foreign Minister Anne Linde said Sweden’s accession to NATO would have a stabilizing effect and benefit the Baltic states.

The Swedish Left Party – a former communist party – remains opposed to membership, as is the Green Party, but if the Social Democrats change their stance, this would create an overwhelming majority in parliament in favor of membership.

Stressful waiting period and integration

Finland has a “choice” of NATO, a kind of action plan enforced in the event of a deteriorating security situation, and the Swedish parliament on Friday introduced a new security policy review, although the latter is not expected to contain an explicit recommendation on NATO.

Sweden’s Social Democrats called for a parliamentary debate on NATO on Monday. If the party supports as expected, the government could request a vote in the Swedish Parliament on the application, but it is not formally required.

Social Democrat Prime Minister Sana Marin, who leads Finland’s five-party center-left coalition, and President Niinisto have toured various NATO member states in recent weeks, securing support for a possible bid.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Anderson, also a Social Democrat, also had several meetings with NATO leaders, including Britain’s Boris Johnson, who toured both Sweden and later Finland today, signing new agreements between London and London. to strengthen European security, pledging to support the two countries’ armed forces in the event of an attack.

Points of friction and agony

Finland and Sweden would like to have some guarantees that NATO member states will defend them as long as their application is processed and until they become full members.

Ratification could take a year, say NATO diplomats, as the parliaments of all 30 NATO countries must approve new members.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg stressed that the countries could join “quickly” and said he was confident that arrangements could be made for the interim period.

Finnish Foreign Minister Peka Haavisto acknowledged that applying for membership alone would not bring the two countries under the umbrella of NATO Article 5, which guarantees that an attack on an ally is an attack on everyone.

“But at the same time, NATO member states have an interest in ensuring that there are no security breaches during the application period,” Haavisto said. Finland could, for example, conduct enhanced military exercises with NATO members during this period.

Reactions and threats from Russia

Moscow has repeatedly warned of “serious consequences” if Finland and Sweden join NATO, saying it would strengthen its land, naval and air forces in the Baltic Sea and raise the possibility of developing nuclear weapons in the region.

On Saturday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the end of Finland’s military neutrality would be a “mistake” during a telephone conversation with his Finnish counterpart Sauli Niinisto, according to a statement issued by the Kremlin.

On Wednesday, the Finnish president, when asked about the dangers of the country joining the North Atlantic Alliance, said: “My answer to Putin would be that you caused this and you have to look in the mirror.”

In another move indicative of Moscow’s stance, electricity exports from Russia to Finland were suspended overnight, following an announcement by a Russian supplier, an official from the Finnish power grid operator told AFP.

On Thursday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peshkov stressed that Finland’s accession to NATO would “definitely” pose a threat to Russia.

The Kola Peninsula, in northwestern Russia, in the Arctic, east of the border with Finland and Norway, is a “strategic stronghold” that Moscow considers key to its national security and is also the base of Russia’s Northern Fleet.

Russia’s second largest city, St. Petersburg, is located approximately 170 km from the border with Finland.

With information from AMPE

Source: Capital

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