Fiocruz’s InfoGripe Bulletin released on Thursday (2) indicated that 13 of the 27 states had signs of growth in cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SRAG). Unlike the previous bulletin, the increase in cases was found in all age groups under 60 years. Fiocruz, however, pointed out that it was a slight increase in cases, which could be compatible with a scenario of oscillation, moreover, around a stable situation, but that it is necessary to carefully monitor if it is a long-term trend or something one-off.
The signs of growth of SARS cases were identified in Acre, Amazonas, Amapá, Bahia, Ceará, Federal District, Espírito Santo, Maranhão, Mato Grosso do Sul, Pará, Rio de Janeiro, Rondônia and São Paulo.
The states that drew the most attention due to their growth are Rio de Janeiro, Pará and Ceará. In Pará, Fiocruz identified a sign of growth in all age groups, especially in November. It is the same situation as in Ceará, although in this state the growth indicator is more recent. In Rio, an advance in the growth trend was identified, mainly in children aged 0 to 9 years, and in young adults aged between 20 and 29 years.
This sign of growth in the long-term trend of SRAG cases was also identified in 13 of the 27 capitals. As in the states, this growth was classified as mild by Fiocruz and in some capitals, such as Rio de Janeiro, the number may have been pulled by cases of flu-like illness caused by the influenza A virus (flu).
The analysis was based on data entered in the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (Sivep-Influenza) until November 22 and is based on nowcasting estimates (method evaluates the volume of SARS cases for the most recent period, which avoids a lag in numbers).
For the Fiocruz researcher, Daniel Vilela, one of those responsible for InfoGripe, the numbers point to the need to continue advancing with vaccination and with measures to contain the virus.
“We have to be concerned about relaxing the distancing measures. It is necessary to look at the coming weeks and identify whether this increase would be an oscillation, a slight momentary increase in cases followed by a reduction, or if it could mean a resurgence. At the end of last year there was an upsurge, but there was no vaccine. Advancing vaccination even further, I hope this might just be a fluctuation. But cooperation is needed to continue with surveillance activities, wearing a mask and avoiding agglomerations”, explained the researcher.
He pointed out the fact that the rapid increase in SRAG cases was more concentrated in the age group 10-19 and 20-29, ages at which vaccination progressed less.
The researcher also warned of the entry of a new variant, Ômicron, about which little information is available. According to him, it is important to avoid crowds, including the New Year’s Eve party in Rio.
“Depending on this picture of the new variant, if there are no measures to mitigate this transmission, the pandemic could worsen again. As the end of the year parties need to be planned now, the most prudent would be to reduce the crowds… any festivities that involve crowding should not happen, as every crowding is a possible facilitator for more broadcasts to happen”, concluded Vilela.
Reference: CNN Brasil
