Fiscal prism: market predicts central government surplus in 2022

Financial market institutions raised the central government’s primary balance surplus forecast for 2022. According to the median projection for September, the expectation is for a surplus of R$ 30.5 billion. In the previous month, the expectation was for a surplus of R$ 4.5 billion.

The Prisma Fiscal report, released this Tuesday (13) by the Ministry of Economy, brings together the statistics of the consolidated forecasts of market institutions. The document presents an analysis of indicators such as unemployment, debt, GDP, revenue and central government results.

Despite the positive projection for this year, in 2023 the deficit expectation was high. Now, in September, this month’s document points to a primary deficit of R$ 43.1 billion for the next year. In the previous month, the forecast was for a primary deficit of R$ 30 billion.

The market also expects the unemployment rate, until November, to remain at 9%. Regarding the calculation of the last release, the projection shows a stabilization of the index until the penultimate month of the year.

Also according to the institutions, the central government’s gross debt should be 78.19% of GDP this year. Previously, the forecast was 79%. Regarding economic growth, the market raised the country’s growth expectation in 2022 to 2.7%, before a projection of 1.92% in the previous release.