Fitch Ratings has increased the forecast for oil prices for 2022 and 2023. According to the risk agency, WTI oil should be at US$ 95 this year (previously US$ 67 was expected), already in 2023, the barrel should be $76 (from $57).
On the other hand, Brent crude is expected to be around US$100 (from a previous forecast of US$70) a barrel in 2022 and US$80 (from US$60) in 2023.
According to the risk agency, the long-term projections remain unchanged, reflecting the impact of the energy transition on demand and the marginal cost of production.
Fitch highlighted that the significantly greater risks of interruptions to Russian hydrocarbon supplies following the conflict in Ukraine and the intention of Europe and some non-European countries to reduce their dependence on Russian fuel, increasing demand for supplies in others, were taken into account. places and exacerbating market tightening.
However, according to the agency, there are several sources of additional oil supplies that could eventually ease the squeeze over time.
“Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have idle capacity of around 2 million and 1 million barrels per day, respectively, although there is no commitment from these countries to increase production to offset potential losses of Russian oil. In addition, there are discussions to relax sanctions against Iran and Venezuela,” he says.
Source: CNN Brasil
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