Floods in Libya up to 50 times more likely due to climate crisis

The deadly rains that caused catastrophic flooding and destruction in Libya and other parts of the Mediterranean this month have become much more likely and worsened by the man-made climate crisis and other human factors, according to a new scientific analysis.

The World Weather Attribution (WWA) initiative – a team of scientists analyzing the role of climate change following extreme weather events – found that planet-warming pollution made deadly rains in Libya up to 50 times more likely to occur and 50% worse . They also found that the extreme rains that hit Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria are up to 10 times more likely.

The destruction caused by the rains was worsened by a number of other factors, including inadequate infrastructure and construction in flood-prone areas, according to the analysis published Tuesday (19).

Extreme rains have hit much of the Mediterranean region since the beginning of the month. On September 3rd, the Spain recorded huge amounts of rain in just a few hours, causing floods that killed at least six people. Then Storm Daniel formed, causing severe flooding for four days in Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria.

At least 17 people have died in Greece and large swaths of farmland in the central part of the country have been submerged, causing damage that experts say could take years to recover. Storm Daniel also caused at least seven deaths in Turkey and four in Bulgaria.

However, without a doubt, the most catastrophic impacts occurred in Libya. Fueled by the exceptionally warm waters of the Mediterranean, Storm Daniel dumped record amounts of rain on parts of the northeast of the country, causing two dams to collapse and resulting in a 7-meter wave that hit the city of Derna, sweeping people and buildings into the sea. sea.

Official estimates suggest that around 4,000 people were killed, while more than 10,000 remain missing.

To understand the impact of climate change on the likelihood and intensity of these heavy rains, WWA scientists analyzed climate data, as well as climate models, which allow them to compare the current climate – about 1.2º Celsius warmer than pre-war levels. industrial – with a world without climate change.

They found that in Libya, not only has climate change made extreme rainfall up to 50 times more likely, it has also made it up to 50% more intense.