The financial market forecast for inflation in 2022 rose for the fifth consecutive week. The median of forecasts for the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) reached 5.5%, compared to 5.44% last week.
The numbers are from the Focus Bulletin of the Central Bank (BC), released this Monday (14). The document gathers the estimates of more than 100 financial market institutions for the main economic indicators.
If this figure is confirmed, it will be the second year of breaking the inflation target, which this year should not exceed 5%. The center of the target is 3.5%, however, the margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points up or down allows the index to vary between 2% and 5%.
Thus, analysts are already betting on a basic interest rate of 12.25% a year until the end of 2022 to hold back inflation, compared to 11.75% a year expected until last week. The basic interest rate, the Selic, is the Central Bank’s main tool to control inflationary pressure.
For 2023, inflation expectations were maintained at 3.5%. The value is also above the target center of 3%, but still within the upper limit of 4.5%.
The estimate of economic growth for 2022 remained stable, with an expected increase of 0.3% for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). For 2023, the market has lowered its high forecast from 1.53% to 1.5%.
Source: CNN Brasil
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