The financial market reduced its inflation forecast for 2022, from 7.30 to 7.15. The numbers are from the Focus Bulletin of the Central Bank (BC), published this Monday (1). The document gathers the estimates of more than 100 financial market institutions for the main economic indicators.
This is the fifth week in a row that the report shows positive expectations for the Brazilian economy. In the case of GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the projection is that the economy will reach 1.97% growth per year, very close to that expected by the economic team of the federal government.
However, the scenario expected by the market for 2023 is not so optimistic. Inflation is expected to increase from 5.30% to 5.33%.
It is the 17th consecutive weekly increase in the median of forecasts for the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index). The GDP estimate for next year, on the other hand, dropped from 0.49% to 0.40%.
Inflation above target
Inflation projections for the years 2022 and 2023 are above the ceiling of the target defined by the National Monetary Council (CMN), respectively of 5% and 4.75%. The BC has already admitted that this should be the second consecutive year in which the upper limit of the inflation target will be breached.
Analysts kept forecasts for the basic interest rate at 13.75% per year in 2022, but raised the interest rate outlook for 2023 to 11% per year. The Selic is the Central Bank’s main tool to control inflationary pressure.
Source: CNN Brasil
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