The CNA (National Confederation of Agriculture) predicts that Brazilian agribusiness will have a higher production cost and a lower profit margin, with a reduction in income for rural producers next year.
According to the agricultural entity, the worrying perspective is due, in the domestic scenario, to uncertainties about the control of public expenses and the conduct of fiscal policy by the elected government, which can impact the costs of the agricultural sector, especially in tax matters.
In addition, if the interest rate remains at a high level, currently at 13.75% per year, there is a forecast for a higher cost of credit for consumption, funding and investment.
On the international scene, there is a prospect of a slowdown in world economic activity and a drop in growth in countries like China and the United States, which could impact Brazilian exports next year.
The fear is also that the continuation of the war between Russia and Ukraine maintains a volatile scenario regarding the world availability of grains, inputs and fertilizers.
The estimate made by the agricultural entity is that, even in the face of the negative scenario, there should be a recovery in agricultural production compared to this year, which should close this year with a drop of 4.1%.
The estimate for the grain harvest in the period from 2022 to 2023 is an increase of 15.5%, which represents 42 million tons, compared to the 2021/2022 harvest, reaching a total of 313 million tons.
“The growth is a reflection of the increase in the planted area, estimated at 76.8 million hectares in the current harvest, mainly soybeans, which may reach 43.2 million hectares, surpassing the previous cycle by 4%”, explains the entity agricultural.
The expectation is that world soy consumption will increase by 1% in 2023, concentrated in developing countries, which should account for 74% of consumption in 2023.
In foreign trade, from January to October this year, Brazilian exports of agricultural products totaled US$ 136.1 billion, surpassing by 13% the total sold in all of 2021, of US$ 120.5 billion.
Source: CNN Brasil
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