From Russia’s point of view, it may be better to increase its aggression in Ukraine instead of remaining inactive, according to a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI).
This may be because if Russia backs down now, NATO will think that arms exports to Ukraine were a “key decisive step” and that further deterrence is needed, Rob Lee told CNBC.
Russia does not want NATO or Ukraine to believe that this is the case, he said on Monday.
“That’s why I think the cost of inaction, from Russia’s point of view, is probably greater than the cost of escalation at the moment,” he added.
Ukraine also has “limited capabilities” in terms of long-range missiles and is working to improve that capability.
“One reason Russia may consider the cost of action now less than expected is that if Ukraine develops longer-range missile systems, that means that any Russian escalation in the future could lead to a strike in Kiev. “Russian cities or important military infrastructure deeper in Russia.”
Ukraine does not have this option at the moment. “I think this is part of the cost-benefit analysis for them,” he said.
Asked how soon Russia could invade Ukraine, Lee said that “this could happen today or in the coming days”, and pointed to signs that Moscow was moving troops and equipment closer to the Ukrainian border. and that soldiers enter smaller formations.
“In fact, they seem to have almost all the pieces in place from a military point of view,” he said.
The increase in Russian troops on the Ukrainian border has raised fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, in a repeat of the annexation of Crimea in 2014. The Kremlin, for its part, denies and denies such allegations.
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Source: Capital
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