Seeking to contain the rampant rise in inflation, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to raise the Selic rate for the 10th consecutive time, to 12.75%. According to a survey carried out by the CNN Brasil Business with Michael Viriato, strategist at Casa do Investidor, this is the longest cycle of subsequent highs in history.
The Central Bank opted, at its third meeting of 2022 – this Wednesday (4), for a 1 percentage point increase.
The maximum number of highs in a row was in the last cycle ended in 2014, with 9 highs. Luciano Costa, economist and partner at Monte Bravo Investimentos, explained that growth in the cycle was interrupted by the election at the time.
Regarding the current movement, Alexandre Espirito Santo, chief economist at Órama, recalls that the Selic rate was at very low levels in the pandemic, and inflation soared from 2021.
“The return to reach the goal [da inflação] It’s taking longer than what we were usually used to experiencing… We’ve never had such a low rate and now we’re going to need more time”.
Both experts believe the interest rate is likely to rise once again, completing 11th consecutive highs. The next Copom meeting will take place on June 14 and 15.
See the interest rate history since 1996, historical database of the Central Bank:
Inflation
Considered as an official “inflation preview”, the IPCA-15 (Extended National Consumer Price Index-15) accelerated to 1.73% in April. The number is 0.78 percentage points (pp) higher than the March rate (0.95%), informed the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
The institute highlights that this is the highest monthly variation of the indicator since February 2003 (2.19%), in addition to being the highest variation for a month of April since 1995 (1.95%).
See also the historical series of inflation since July 1996:
Source: CNN Brasil
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