Forecast of the USD/CAD price: bounces since 200 days EMA

  • The USD/CAD is recovered from 200 days to about 1,4160 before US employment data.
  • The tariffs of US President Trump are expected to weigh on global economic perspectives.
  • The Fed president, Powell, is expected to provide clues on how the inflation driven by Trump tariffs will impact monetary policy perspectives.

The USD/CAD pair bounces up to about 1,4160 during Friday’s European negotiation hours from a minimum of almost four months of 1,4026 registered on Thursday. The Loonie pair recovers as the US dollar (USD) attracts offers, although the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by President Donald Trump has generated concerns about the economic perspectives of the United States (USA).

The US dollar index (DXY), which follows the value of the dollar against six main currencies, rises to about 102.60 from its recent minimum of 101.25.

Market experts believe that Trump’s tariffs will result in a resurgence of inflation and weigh on economic growth. However, Trump is confident that his protectionist policies will increase manufacturing jobs in the US.

Meanwhile, investors expect labor market data from both the United States (USA) and Canada, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US economy and the Canadian are expected to have added 135,000 and 12,000 new workers in March. During the North American session, investors will also focus on the speech of the president of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, to obtain new orientations on monetary policy perspectives.

The USD/CAD is recovered from 1,4026, testing the breakdown of the horizontal support set from the minimum of February 17 around 1,4160. The pair bounced after attracting offers near the 200 -day exponential mobile average (EMA), which is around 1,4070.

The 14 -day relative force (RSI) index struggles to recover above 40.00. A new bearish impulse would be activated if the RSI fails to rise above the level of 40.00.

A new downward movement would appear if the pair breaks below the minimum of December 6, 1,4020. This scenario would expose the Psychological Support of 1.4000, followed by the minimum of November 25, 1,3927.

On the contrary, the pair would be strengthened if it breaks above the maximum of April 3, 1,4320. Such scenario would send to the highest torque near the maximum of April 1, 1,4415 and the maximum of March 14, 1,4447.

USD/CAD DAILY GRAPH

Source: Fx Street

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