Forecasts for next week: FOMC Minutes, protagonists

Another week in which bets on the possible timing of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve dominated currency headlines. Against this backdrop, the Dollar reached new 2024 highs, while EUR/USD retreated below 1.0700 to mark a new all-time low.

Let's start with the American agenda. Markets will remain closed on Monday due to the “President's Day” holiday. The Central Bank's leading index will be published on February 20, while the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee will be published on February 21. On February 22, the Chicago Fed's national activity index, preliminary PMI indices and existing home sales will be released. The USD Index (DXY) saw a loss of momentum in the latter part of the week after reaching new 2024 highs near the 105.00 barrier, although the momentum was insufficient to stop the multi-week positive streak.

On February 21, the preliminary report on Consumer Confidence will be published, while on February 22, the preliminary PMI indices for Germany and the euro zone, as well as the final Eurozone Inflation Rate, will be published. Finally, Germany's IFO business climate and final GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter will be released on February 23. Despite falling below 1.0700 earlier in the week, the EUR/USD pair managed to regain its footing and finish the week with modest gains.

In the UK, public sector financials will be released on February 21, followed by flash PMIs on February 22. Gfk consumer confidence will close the agenda on February 23. The GBP/USD pair recovered notably in the second half of the week, breaking through the 1.2600 barrier to end the week virtually unchanged.

A data-light week is expected in Japan, with machinery orders due on February 19, followed by the Reuters Tankan index and trade balance figures on February 21, while weekly investment readings in Foreign bonds will be published on February 22. USD/JPY resumed its uptrend on Friday, posting its third consecutive week of gains after hitting new yearly highs near 151.00 (February 13).

In Oz, the RBA minutes will be the focus on February 20, ahead of the Westpac Flash Index, the PMI and preliminary PMIs on February 21. AUD/USD managed to reverse Tuesday's deep pullback to new all-time lows, advancing over the next three sessions to close its second consecutive week with gains.

In China, preliminary Q4 Current Account figures will be released on February 18, while the House Price Index and FDI (year-on-year) will be released on February 23.

Anticipating Economic Outlook: Voices on the Horizon

• R. Bostic and M. Bowman of the Fed will give statements on February 21 along with S. Dhingra of the BOE and J. Nagel of the ECB.
• P. Jefferson, P. Harker, N. Kashkari and L. Cook of the Fed will speak on February 22, as will M. Greene of the BOE.
• On February 23, C. Waller, from the Fed, I. Schnabel and J. Nagel, from the ECB, will speak.

Central banks: Upcoming meetings to define monetary policy

• The People's Bank of China (PBoC) is expected to reduce its 1-year and 5-year monetary policy by 10 basis points on February 20.
• Bank Indonesia (BI) will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.00% on February 21.
• The Bank of Korea (BoK) expects no changes on February 22, keeping its official interest rate unchanged at 3.50%.