Forex Today: Dollar extends decline as markets await US employment data

This is what you need to know to operate today, Friday, May 3:

He Dollar United States (USD) remains under modest bearish pressure early Friday, with the Dollar Index (DXY) trading at its lowest level in three weeks, slightly above 105.00. In the second half of the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April employment report, which will include Nonfarm Payrolls, the unemployment rate and wage inflation figures. The ISM services PMI report for April will also feature on the US economic agenda heading into the weekend.

Following the decline following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcements late on Wednesday, the DXY recovered slightly during the European session on Thursday. However, the positive change seen in risk sentiment sparked another move lower later in the US session. Wall Street's main indices registered strong increases, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way, with an advance of 1.3%. Early on Friday, US stock index futures are trading in positive territory, while the 10-year US bond yield remains below 4.6%.

Price of the US Dollar this week

The following table shows the percentage change of the United States Dollar (USD) against the main currencies quoted this week. The US Dollar was the weakest currency against the Japanese Yen.

USD EUR GBP CAD AUD JPY NZD CHF
USD -0.24% -0.30% 0.07% -0.52% -3.33% -0.34% -0.61%
EUR 0.24% -0.06% 0.31% -0.27% -3.09% -0.09% -0.37%
GBP 0.31% 0.06% 0.37% -0.22% -3.03% -0.04% -0.30%
CAD -0.07% -0.32% -0.37% -0.59% -3.41% -0.41% -0.70%
AUD 0.51% 0.27% 0.21% 0.58% -2.81% 0.17% -0.10%
JPY 3.24% 2.99% 2.93% 3.30% 2.71% 2.90% 2.65%
NZD 0.34% 0.09% 0.03% 0.41% -0.18% -3.00% -0.27%
CHF 0.62% 0.38% 0.31% 0.68% 0.09% -2.71% 0.27%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the major currencies against each other. The base currency is chosen in the left column, while the quote currency is chosen in the top row. For example, if you choose the Euro in the left column and scroll down the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change that appears in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).

Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to increase by 238,000 in April, following growth of 303,000 in March. The unemployment rate will remain at 3.8% and average hourly earnings will increase 4% annually.

He EUR/USD posted marginal gains on Thursday and continued to stretch higher early on Friday. At the time of writing, the pair is trading slightly above 1.0730.

After spending much of the day below 1.2500, the GBP/USD It reversed its direction in the American session and closed positively. The pair remains firm in the European morning and trades modestly higher near 1.2550.

After Wednesday's sharp drop, apparently caused by Japanese intervention in the currency market, the USD/JPY broad its fall and closed Thursday in negative territory. The pair remains lower in the early hours of Friday and is now down 0.4% on the day near 153.00.

He Gold was unable to consolidate Wednesday's gains, but managed to close the day slightly above $2,300 on Thursday. XAU/USD remains relatively calm near this level during the European morning.

Economic indicators

Non-Agricultural Payrolls

The Non-Farm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-farm businesses; It is published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly evolution of payrolls can be extremely volatile. The figure is also subject to strong revisions, which can also trigger volatility on the currency board. Generally speaking, a high reading is considered bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is considered bearish, although revisions from previous months and the unemployment rate are just as relevant as the headline figure. The market reaction, therefore, depends on how the market values ​​all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

More information.

Last post: Fri Apr 05, 2024 12:30

Periodicity: Monthly

Current: 303K

Consensus: 200K

Former: 275K

Fountain: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

The monthly US employment report is considered the most important economic indicator for currency traders. Published on the first Friday following the reporting month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the mandates of the Federal Reserve, which takes into account the evolution of the labor market when setting its policies, which has an impact on currencies. Although several leading indicators shape estimates, Non-Farm Payrolls often surprise markets and trigger high volatility. Actual numbers that exceed consensus tend to be bullish for the dollar.

Source: Fx Street

You may also like