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Forex Today: Focus is on UK fall budget and US data.

This is what you need to know to trade today thursday november 17:

Although geopolitical tensions appear to have increased, investors remain cautious early Thursday and major currency pairs trade in tight ranges. The Dollar Index is holding steady above 106.00 and the 10-year US Treasury yield is quiet around 3.7%. Eurostat will publish the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (IPCA) end of October and the British chancellor, Jeremy Hunt will present the autumn budget to Parliament. In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will include numbers for October housing starts, building permits and weekly initial jobless claims. In the second half of the day, various FOMC policymakers will also deliver speeches.

Despite better-than-expected US retail sales data, safe-haven money flows continued to dominate financial markets on Wednesday. Although Wall Street’s major indices turned lower after the opening bell, US dollar failed to benefit from market sentiment as investors continued to price in a smaller rate hike in December. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point hike from the Federal Reserve currently stands at 85%.

During the Asian session, data from Australia has shown that the unemployment rate dropped to 3.4% in October from 3.5% in September. This data exceeded market expectations, which expected 3.6%. Other details from the jobs report revealed that the job change was +32,200, compared to analysts’ estimate of 15,000. The AUDUSD It dipped as far as the 0.6700 area as an initial reaction, but has managed to erase much of its daily losses heading into the European session.

Statistics Canada reported Wednesday that the Annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 6.9%, as expected. The USDCAD It did not show an immediate reaction to the inflation data, but falling crude oil prices allowed the pair to close in positive territory above 1.3300. At time of writing, the pair is trading unchanged on the day around 1.3330.

Speaking before the UK Treasury Select Committee, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said that they will likely continue to raise rates, but noted that they were looking for signs that the supply chain shock was starting to wear off.. The GBPUSD ended up posting small daily gains on Wednesday before entering a consolidation phase near 1.1900 on Thursday. British Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt said they need tax hikes and spending cuts to weather the economic storm. Hunt is expected to announce a package of £25bn worth of tax increases and £35bn worth of spending cuts in the autumn budget.

The EURUSD remains calm below 1.0400 early Thursday. The vice president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Luis de Guindos, said on Wednesday that the “balance sheet reduction should be applied prudently” and added that they were planning to start with passive QT.

The USDJPY is struggling to make a decisive move in either direction and is sideways in a tight range below 140.00. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has said earlier in the day that they expected CPI growth to fall below 2% in the next fiscal year with the “cost push” factors decreasing.

The Prayed it snapped a four-day winning streak on Wednesday and is still down as of early Thursday. XAUUSD is trading below $1,770 as US 10-year bond yields hold steady.

The Bitcoin continues its downward trend near $16,500 and the ethereum loses more than 1% and stands at around $1,200.

Source: Fx Street

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