Forex today: the markets focus on geopolitics in the intensification of the conflict between Israel and Iran

This is what you need to know to operate today Monday, June 16:

Market participants remain cautious at the beginning of the week, since tensions in the Middle East increase, with Iran and Israel exchanging missile attacks. In the second half of the day, the New York Federal Reserve Bank will publish the Empire State manufacturing survey for June. Later, in the American session, the US Treasury will carry out a 20 -year bond auction.

US dollar price this month

The lower table shows the percentage of the US dollar change (USD) compared to the main currencies this month. The US dollar was the strongest currency against the Japanese yen.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD Aud NZD CHF
USD -1.83% -0.72% 0.00% -1.69% -1.04% -1.19% -1.34%
EUR 1.83% 1.16% 1.84% 0.14% 0.85% 0.98% 0.51%
GBP 0.72% -1.16% 0.69% -0.99% -0.30% -0.34% -0.64%
JPY 0.00% -1.84% -0.69% -1.68% -0.94% -1.03% -1.27%
CAD 1.69% -0.14% 0.99% 1.68% 0.76% 0.65% 0.36%
Aud 1.04% -0.85% 0.30% 0.94% -0.76% 0.14% -0.34%
NZD 1.19% -0.98% 0.34% 1.03% -0.65% -0.14% -0.47%
CHF 1.34% -0.51% 0.64% 1.27% -0.36% 0.34% 0.47%

The heat map shows the percentage changes of the main currencies. The base currency is selected from the left column, while the contribution currency is selected in the upper row. For example, if you choose the US dollar of the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change shown in the box will represent the USD (base)/JPY (quotation).

The military conflict between Israel and Iran, which began on early Friday, continues for the fourth consecutive day. On Sunday, Israel said that he killed the head of the Iran Armed Forces Intelligence Unit. According to Iran’s Ministry of Health, more than 200 people have died in Israeli attacks. Meanwhile, several media reported that Iranian missiles hit Israel’s largest oil refinery, located in Haifa Bay.

During the weekend, the president of the United States (USA), Donald Trump, urged Iran and Israel to reach an agreement. “We will have peace, soon, between Israel and Iran. Many calls and meetings are taking place now!” He added in Truth Social.

He US Dollar Index (USD) Marginally quotes down in the day, around 98.00 in the European morning and the futures of the US stock market rates are maintained in positive territory. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (FED) will announce the decision on interest rates and publish the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) reviewed, the so -called points graph.

He Gold The week began with a bullish tone and rose to its highest level in almost two months, above $ 3,450, before losing traction. At the time of the wording, the Xau/USD was down approximately 0.5% in the day, below $ 3,420.

The crude oil prices They shot on Friday and the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose more than 10% in the week. The WTI corrects early Monday and quotes slightly above $ 71,00, losing about 2% in the day.

After Friday’s fall, the EUR/USD Advance towards 1,1600 in the European session on Monday.

China’s data showed earlier on the day that retail sales increased 6.4% in interannual terms in May. This reading was better than the market expectation of 5%. In this period, industrial production expanded 5.8%. He AUD/USD It remains firm and quoted in positive territory above 0.6500 on Monday.

He GBP/USD It ended last week despite registering daily losses on Friday. The pair clings to small daily profits and quotes at a nearby distance of 1,3600 in the early European morning.

He USD/JPY Fight to find direction at the beginning of the week and fluctuates in a relatively narrow channel above 144.00. The Bank of Japan will announce monetary policy decisions in the Asian session on Tuesday.

FAQS risk feeling

In the world of financial jargon, the two terms “appetite for risk (Risk-on)” and “risk aversion (risk-off)” refers to the level of risk that investors are willing to support during the reference period. In a “Risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and are more willing to buy risk assets. In a “Risk-Off” market, investors begin to “go to the safe” because they are concerned about the future and, therefore, buy less risky assets that are more certain of providing profitability, even if it is relatively modest.

Normally, during periods of “appetite for risk”, stock markets rise, and most raw materials – except gold – are also revalued, since they benefit from positive growth prospects. The currencies of countries that are large exporters of raw materials are strengthened due to the increase in demand, and cryptocurrencies rise. In a market of “risk aversion”, the bonds go up -especially the main bonds of the state -, the gold shines and the refuge currencies such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss Franco and the US dollar benefit.

The Australian dollar (Aud), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the minor currencies, such as the ruble (Rub) and the South African Rand (Tsar), tend to rise in the markets in which there is “appetite for risk.” This is because the economies of these currencies depend largely on exports of raw materials for their growth, and these tend to rise in price during periods of “appetite for risk.” This is because investors foresee a greater demand for raw materials in the future due to the increase in economic activity.

The main currencies that tend to rise during the periods of “risk aversion” are the US dollar (USD), the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franco (CHF). The dollar, because it is the world reserve currency and because in times of crisis investors buy American public debt, which is considered safe because it is unlikely that the world’s largest economy between in suspension of payments. The Yen, for the increase in the demand for Japanese state bonds, since a great proportion is in the hands of national investors who probably do not get rid of them, not even in a crisis. The Swiss Franco, because the strict Swiss bank legislation offers investors greater protection of capital.

Source: Fx Street

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