France: ‘Everything is at stake’ in the presidential election

Last Wednesday’s poll, which showed a narrowing of the gap between Emanuel Macron and Marin Lepen in the second round of elections on April 24, shook the spirits. Despite the fact that the presidential candidate Macron maintains the preference of the voters, the difference with his opponent has, for the first time, shrunk to 5 points.

This is the Elabe poll (March 30) on behalf of BFM TV and the Express magazine which gives Macron 52.5% (-) and Marin Lepen 47.5% (+).

Note that in a previous poll on March 16, Elabe gave 59.5% to Macron versus 40.5% to Lepen. A difference of 7 points for both in the 15 days, but with a different sign for each: positive for Lepen, negative for Macron.

Le Pen’s upward momentum is also observed in the first round, where for the first time it reached 21% from the 18% that was moving in previous measurements in March, while Emanuel Macron, despite a “flash” around 30% in mid-March, returned to 28%. which is considered to be his electoral base.

Why is Lepen going up?

The government environment no longer hides its concern and former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who supports Macron, was the first to express his fears in a statement to Le Parisien: “Yes, Marine Le Pen could win the presidency,” he said. at the same time that “its program is dangerous”.

Edouard Philippe does not say exactly what he means by “dangerous.” Is it about the country or Macron’s candidacy? What is certain is that since the summer, Marin Le Pen has focused her program on the issue of the “purchasing power of the people”, which the polls at the time already gave as the first and main concern of the French, which remains today.

Despite the political upheaval mediated by Eric Zemour (November 2021)’s focus on immigration and the conspiratorial threat of the “Great Replacement” (Zemour’s fear that Muslim immigrants would invade Islamic State.), Marin Lepen did not get carried away but remained firm in her subject matter. On the other hand, other candidates, such as Valerie Pekres of the right-wing LR, were awkwardly confused by the issue of the “Great Replacement”.

Zemour contributed to the “acceptance” of Le Pen

At the same time, the presence of Eric Zemour with the extreme positions had as a consequence to soften the profile of Le Pen in the eyes of the voters and to contribute with his presence, to her “acceptance” in the French political scene.

Also, despite the repeated departures of about 10 party executives, from November 2021 until January, with their gradual, over time, accession to Zemour, Marin Lepen did not panic as some predicted. On the contrary, he was praised for his composure, he remained steady without sharp turns to the right or left.

Among the so-called “dissidents” is her niece, former MP Marion Marshall, who had retired from politics three years ago and returned. Although Marin Lepen acknowledged that she was “hurt”, she quickly distanced herself, gaining a relative sympathy from the public, who described as “opportunistic” the party’s abandonment of the party during the critical period of the campaign.

The fear of the “tandem” Lepen-Zemour

It is possible that from the beginning of the year, President Macron has consistently led the polls, a position that has been strengthened by his mediation for peace in Ukraine.

However, when he announced his candidacy, through a letter to the French on Thursday, March 3, which was not very convincing, he immediately accepted the fire of the competitors, starting from the report of his term. It is difficult to get rid of the label of the “president of the rich” or the politician who is cut off from the “essential needs of the popular strata”, as Lepen attributes to him. After all, the crisis with the “yellow vests” has not been forgotten, and the financial problems have not been resolved, with the risk of being exacerbated by the Ukrainian crisis.

Realizing the dangers, Macron was active during the week in trying to make up for lost time from the campaign he has not done so far. He sees Lepen-Zemour as his main opponent in the “tandem”.

It is clear that in a duel with Le Pen, Eric Zemour, who declares the need to create a “Great Right” with the union of all right-wing parties, will not hesitate to support Le Pen in the second round. Zemour’s 11% vote pool could give her the victory.

Starting from yesterday, a series of election meetings, Emanuel Macron was in Sarand-Maritim (south-west), where he revealed his fear: “a tandem of the extreme right, which despite the differences, remain faithful to the same ideas,” he said.

Disgruntled leftists do not intend to vote for Macron

This fear created by the “democratic front” during the 2002 presidential election and excluded Father Lepen, giving the victory to Jacques Chirac with an 82.21%! The problem for Macron in the current election, is that he has so weakened the socialist faction that is in danger of disintegration, with 2% of Ann Indalgo, and not only.

According to a poll conducted exactly one year ago (March 4, 2021) by Harris Interactive for the newspaper L’Opinionmore than 50% of left-wing voters, who are dissatisfied with Macron’s policy, have said that in the event of a resumption of the Macron-Lepen duel “they do not intend to vote for Macron in order to block the road to the Elysium in Marin Lepen”.

Olympia Tsipira, Paris

Source: Deutsche Welle